ABC Renew/Cancel - April 7: Dr. Ken is Likely to be Canceled

In the last week, Last Man Standing and Dr. Ken finished their current seasons, Imaginary Mary had its first Tuesday airing, and the rest of the Tuesday comedies returned after a couple of weeks off.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Agents of SHIELD (0.7, 0.6-1.1)
American Crime (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Imaginary Mary (1.2, 0.9-1.4)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)


Likely to be Renewed
The Catch (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.0-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 1.9-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.2-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.6, 1.3-2.0)

Fate Determined
Conviction (CANCELED)
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Notorious (CANCELED)
Scandal (RENEWED)
Time After Time (CANCELED)

Dr. Ken: Last week I was about 50/50 on Dr. Ken's chances. After what was certainly its most disappointing datapoint of the season, I am down to 45% chance of renewal. I am predicting cancelation, though a renewal would not shock me.

Imaginary Mary: While certainly not failing, Imaginary Mary is most likely not performing well enough for a renewal. This week it got a 0.9 out of a 1.1 from Fresh Off the Boat. This is similar to what The Real O'Neals would rate in this type of situation (usually a 0.8 or 0.9 when Fresh Off the Boat was at 1.1), and Imaginary Mary likely still has to fall, since it has only just began its first season. Also, if Imaginary Mary and The Real O'Neals would end up being about the same strength, and ABC wanted to renew one, they would most likely choose the The Real O'Neals, because they produce it while they don't produce Imaginary Mary, and it has more episodes than Imaginary Mary.

Last Man Standing: A cancelation would be quite surprising for Last Man Standing, but it could still happen since the renewal comes near the last minute each year. Most likely, ABC will renew Last Man Standing, because its year-to-year decline is smaller than average, and they have worked things out in past seasons.

Quantico: This show has now returned to the land of 0.6s, sooner than I would have thought it would. Also, the promotion ABC was giving the show has almost gone away. It now only gets promoted during its lead-in and on low-rated Sundays. While ABC wants the show to succeed, I think they may be losing hope, or perhaps they already lost hope.

Agents of SHIELD: After a month off, Agents of SHIELD returned to a 0.7. I am starting to think that this show has a better shot than I had once thought. For its most recent episode, it was down 30% year-to-year compared to the same episode number from last season, while over on Sundays Once Upon a Time is down 27% from its same episode year-to-year. Factor in that Agents of SHIELD moved to a harder timeslot, and that if renewed Once Upon a Time would probably face harsher than usual declines because it is keeping few cast members in a potential seventh season and wrapping up the main story at the end of season six, and it makes me wonder if Agents of SHIELD may get renewed over Once Upon a Time. I am still leaning in Once's direction at the moment, but I'm going to be keeping an eye on this.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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