First Week Peak: Bullish Predictions for The Bear and Avatar: The Last Airbender

The Ratings Junkie

Welcome to First Week Peak, a column which discusses shows that are about to premiere on Netflix, Prime Video, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max, Peacock, Hulu, and/or Apple TV. Each discussion concludes with a prediction for the show's weekly peak performance on their respective streaming service's U.S. trending chart, including a reader poll. Final results can be found in our weekly What's Trending On Streaming column. Let us know what you think in the comments!

The Bear (Season 5)
Premieres: June 25 on Hulu
Genre: Comedy-drama

Synopsis: FX’s critically acclaimed series The Bear is about food, family and the insanity of the grind. It’s a losing battle every day in the restaurant business, and as Carmy pushes himself harder than ever and demands excellence from his crew, they do their best to match his intensity. Their quest for culinary excellence propels them to new levels and stresses the bonds that hold the restaurant together.

Going For It

The Bear has broken viewership records for Hulu and become a cultural and critical phenom. If there is any show comfortably eyeing a #1 debut, it’s this one. This season will be dropping at the same time in the calendar year as all previous seasons, which eliminates one potential surprise factor in its performance. The Bear’s fourth season premiered at #1 on Hulu last summer. It stayed at #1 for five days before falling to #2 behind The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives.

Going Against It

The Bear’s fifth and final season will be the first to have a linear run simultaneous with its streaming premiere. It’s technically possible some viewers will skip the Hulu binge this time and watch it at a staggered pace on FX.

Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Hulu

Avatar: The Last Airbender (Season 2)
Premieres: June 25 on Netflix
Genre: Fantasy action-adventure

Synopsis: A young boy known as the Avatar must master the four elemental powers to save a world at war — and fight a ruthless enemy bent on stopping him.

Going For It

Avatar: The Last Airbender debuted at #1 on Netflix's weekly US Top 10 chart in February 2024, a position it held the following week. It spent five weeks in the US Top 10, and quickly scored a renewal for a second and third (and final) season. It also topped Nielsen's streaming viewership chart upon its premiere.

Going Against It

It's been over two years since Avatar: The Last Airbender premiered, and this time it'll air in the summer. Its current 2.6 Buzz Score is a far cry from the 64.8 score it hit at the peak of its popularity. It's also not out of the realm of possibility that the first season's viewership was inflated by viewers expecting to see a series based off James Cameron's Avatar movie franchise, despite Avatar: The Last Airbender predating the Avatar movie franchise.

Daily Peak Prediction: #1 on Netflix