ABC Renew/Cancel - April 14: The Catch is Likely to be Renewed

ABC's shows refuse to make it easy. A couple of weeks ago, I thought that I had pretty much made a decision as to which of ABC's dramas would go which way, and that was the end of that. However, one that was "likely to be renewed" has been sinking, while one that was "likely to be canceled" has been doing a little bit better than it was before, despite the fact that the season is nearing its end, a time where shows usually fall in the ratings (but the ratings often spring back in the fall, don't worry).

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
American Crime (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.7-1.1)
Imaginary Mary (1.0, 0.8-1.4)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)

Agents of SHIELD (0.7, 0.6-1.1)
Once Upon a Time (1.0, 0.7-1.3)

Likely to be Renewed
The Catch (0.7, 0.7-0.8)
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.0-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 1.9-2.6)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.1-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.3, 0.9-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.6, 1.3-2.0)

Fate Determined
Conviction (CANCELED)
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Notorious (CANCELED)
Scandal (RENEWED)
Time After Time (CANCELED)

The Catch: Getting 0.7s out of Scandal's 1.3s aren't great, but they should be good enough for The Catch, since it is produced by Shonda Rhimes, who ABC wants to maintain a good relationship with. The show would probably have to get 0.6s for them to cancel it and hope Shonda doesn't hold it against them, but understands that its ratings were much less than ideal.

Agents of SHIELD: Tuesdays at 10:00 have been a troublesome timeslot for ABC for years. With its second 0.7 since its month off this week, Agents of SHIELD was up 40% from the year-ago numbers in that timeslot (Beyond the Tank got a 0.5 there at this time last year), impressive in a climate where ratings are down 16% year-to-year. With that, Once Upon a Time falling to match Agents of SHIELD's numbers this week, and the fact that Agents of SHIELD is ending its season as a season finale, not a series finale, while Once Upon a Time is concluding its main story this season, I think that Agents of SHIELD has a better chance than I have been giving it, so I upgraded it this week to a toss-up.

Once Upon a Time: Hanging in there at 0.8-0.9, I thought that Once Upon a Time was likely to be renewed, despite the fact that a seventh season of the show would be somewhat of a reboot. However, after falling for the second consecutive week, and hitting a 0.7, which ties with what Agents of SHIELD got for its most recent two airings in the tricky Tuesdays at 10:00 timeslot, I am less confident about its chances. Once Upon a Time is a true toss-up, and this upcoming Sunday's ratings are unlikely to shed much light on the situation since it will be Easter Sunday.

Designated Survivor: For the first two weeks of its spring run, Designated Survivor surprised by showing more strength than it had been, with two 1.3s. This was followed by three weeks of 1.1s, and then this week the show fell to a 0.9. There are a couple of reasons that may have caused it to fall: the entire ABC line-up was pre-empted in Chicago (a large market), and the episode dealt with the controversial topic of gun control. If it is all due to the former, the show will surely rebound. If it is due to the latter, then it may rebound, or it may not. No matter what, however, Designated Survivor will be renewed. In a year of drama failures for ABC, Designated Survivor has delivered solid ratings in a 10:00 timeslot. They won't be letting it go this time around, that's for sure.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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