Welcome to the latest edition of FOX Renew/Cancel Watch. In this edition, Prison Break and Shots Fired enter the chart, and remarks are made about the performances of New Girl and Sleepy Hollow.
The Table
Relative Ratings
If you're just joining us, relative ratings are the percentage of FOX's average a show is averaging in a specific demographic. For example, Making History is currently averaging 86% of FOX's average amongst Males 18-49 in Live + Same Day ratings.
The Ad Rate Chart
This ad rate chart presents the ad rates, as reported by Variety, as well as those rates in relative terms. In making my predictions, I like to look at how a show is currently performing in A18-49 relative to these ad rates.
| Show | Ad Rate | RELATIVE |
| Bob's Burgers | 65019 | 53 |
| The Simpsons | 155838 | 126 |
| Son of Zorn | 126053 | 102 |
| Family Guy | 129428 | 105 |
| The Last Man On Earth | 101895 | 83 |
| Gotham | 122680 | 99 |
| Lucifer | 111063 | 90 |
| Brooklyn Nine-Nine | 101803 | 82 |
| New Girl | 102329 | 83 |
| Scream Queens | 121438 | 98 |
| Lethal Weapon | 164853 | 134 |
| Empire | 442413 | 358 |
| Rosewood | 71881 | 58 |
| Pitch | 95728 | 78 |
| Hell's Kitchen | 77561 | 63 |
| The Exorcist | 50551 | 41 |
| Making History | 81035 | 66 |
| 24: Legacy | 138720 | 112 |
| APB | 115128 | 93 |
| The Mick | 103573 | 84 |
| Bones | 96459 | 78 |
| Shots Fired | 140132 | 113 |
| Star | 240572 | 195 |
| Prison Break | 131766 | 107 |
| Kicking and Screaming | 102516 | 83 |
| MasterChef Junior | 86609 | 70 |
| Sleepy Hollow | 56860 | 46 |
How Did New Girl and Sleepy Hollow Do?
New Girl and Sleepy Hollow both ended their seasons this week, but that doesn't necessarily mean that I won't change their statuses. Right now, Sleepy Hollow sits right at its mark, and New Girl is only 3 above it. It's pretty much a fact right now that New Girl is a bubble show, as FOX told the show to prepare for both outcomes. Right now I have it sitting at a renewal, but that could easily change. It's no longer the type of show that is ideal to anchor an hour, which is definitely troublesome. We'll have a better idea once Brooklyn Nine-Nine returns, and obviously there are factors beyond the L+SD numbers, but I don't think a "farewell season" is obvious for the show.
Sleepy Hollow, while right at its target, is also at 46% of FOX's 18-49 average this season. While the goal is most likely to get more episodes produced for streaming, it's hard to see how much longer it will be viable; 18-34 numbers are even harsher on it. So while it's at its target, I'm calling a cancelation for now, as its ratings are still very low.
What About Shots Fired and Prison Break?
The reboot of Prison Break premiered the exact same as the Monday time slot premiere of 24: Legacy. Take that as you will, but the former didn't have the post-Super Bowl premiere that the latter enjoyed, and thus far is more successful as far as traditional ratings go. It's too early to make a definitive call on this one, but for now it sits at a Likely Renewal.
Shots Fired, meanwhile, is a very odd case. It premiered to just a 1.1 A18-49 rating despite airing in that pre-Empire time slot, but the next two episodes were rather steady at a 1.0 rating. What's more, it doesn't see huge half-hours upticks, showing that it's not completely reliant on Empire. So while Empire has lost half a ratings point since its return, Shots Fired only dropped a tenth in that same period of time. I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt right now in the Likely Renewal category. That is definitely subject to change.
What Else?
I also downgraded Son of Zorn from the Leans Cancelation category to the Likely Cancelation category. Given that the show is half-animated, the fact that it hasn't been renewed yet says that if it even comes back, it probably won't be until the spring. And given that it seems like The Mick is being held for midseason, I don't see a way they can also fit Zorn in there. Plus, with The Last man On Earth holding up well in its return, FOX may not need Zorn to maintain relations with Lord Miller Productions.
What do you think of my predictions? Discuss in the comments below!