ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: Midseason Preview

For those of you unfamiliar with my ad rate-based metrics, I have calculated the approximate demo number at which the network values each midseason entry, based on its ad rate and last season's average. ABC's ad rate this season increased 3-4%, so I predict the numbers could be off by about
that much. Here they are:

Galavant: 1.44
The Family: 1.27
The Real O'Neals: 1.03
Marvel's Agent Carter: 1.72
The Catch: 2.14
Secrets & Lies: 1.30
Uncle Buck: 0.96

Unfortunately I couldn't find data for American Crime or Of Kings and Prophets. 

It's simple: if the actual demo number is larger than this average, it will be renewed as ABC will see a chance to raise its ad rate and make more ad revenue off the show. If it goes significantly below the number above, ABC will have to lower the ad rate in order for another season to appeal to advertisers, meaning that the show may be more in limbo. The exception would be The Catch, which could easily squeak out a renewal if it goes a little lower than the number above due to the fact that it is so high. Now, for my prediction on these shows. Keep a close watch especially on the freshmen dramas, as they may affect renewal prospects for Castle and Nashville. I'm not putting anything as Certain to be Renewed or Certain to be Canceled, as that kind of assumption really can't be made ahead of time. There's also a possibility that there will be some renegotiating on Secrets & Lies if possible, depending on if it airs in the summer or not.

Likely to be Cancelled Watching Likely to be Renewed
Uncle Buck The Real O’Neals The Catch

The Family Marvel’s Agent Carter

Secrets & Lies 

Showdown: The Real O'Neals vs Fresh Off The Boat

The Real O’Neals Fresh Off The Boat
Nature Single-Cam (Tuesday) Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49) N/A 1.51
Ad Rate $80,690 $122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics) 1.03 1.56
Range of Ratings (A18-49) N/A 1.2-1.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49) 1.51 (but has settled around 1.1-1.2) N?A
% Decline Year-to-Year N/A 16%
Syndication  N/A N/A
Seasons 0.5 1.5
Production Company ABC Studios 20th Century Fox
Extraneous Factors Protests from various sources against the content and EP Dan Savage First Asian-American led show on broadcast in 25 years; does well in that demo
Even though its average is a 1.51, Fresh Off The Boat simply isn't living up to its ad rate as of late. The switch back to 8pm come Daylight Savings Time will make keeping up even harder. Not to mention that The Real O'Neals is in-house produced. Protest all you want, but only low ratings will make the show go away. If both settle in the low 1s, it will be a tough decision to see if either will be renewed, as ABC already has five certain renewals when it comes to comedy, one more (Last Man Standing), and a seventh (The Muppets) that may be saved as a bridge show for the fact that they're The Muppets. ABC is really thriving in comedy right now, so I wouldn't be surprised to see both cancelled. ABC will probably be happy with The Real O'Neals if it can settle at a 1.0-1.2, given that's what they bargained for when setting the ad rate. However, that won't be enough to get it renewed based on league average declines unless they have plans to switch it to the post-Modern Family time slot, an unlikely proposition. However, if it settles in at least the mid 1s, ABC will see a chance to capitalize, thus raising the ad rate and making more money off the show. That's something that almost certainly cannot be said about the declining Fresh Off The Boat.

Edge: The Real O'Neals

Showdown: Galavant vs The Muppets

I just can't see a scenario where The Muppets come back in the fall. Any other show and the show would be an easy cancellation. But ABC may see a chance to cut their losses a little bit (which actually isn't as much as many people have thought based on its ad rate) and use it as a bridge comedy or midseason replacement. But most likely as a bridge comedy. I foresee that there may only be one, so let the battle begin. No, we don't know much about how Galavant Season 2 will do, but here's a sense going into the season:

Galavant The Muppets
Nature Musical-Comedy (Sunday) Single-Cam (Tuesday)
Season Average (A18-49) 1.33 (last season) 1.51
Ad Rate $112,914 $122,212
Ad Approximation Demo (My Metrics) 1.44 1.68
Range of Ratings (A18-49) 0.9-2.0 (last season) 1.1-2.9
Lead-in Average (A18-49) 1.25 (Note: inflated slightly by 1.7 special rating) N/A
% Decline Year-to-Year N/A N/A
Syndication  N/A N/A
Seasons 8 episodes 1 partial season
Production Company ABC Studios ABC Studios
Extraneous Factors Musical comedy, presumably cheap to produce They’re The Muppets, a very popular franchise. ABC and The Muppets share the same corporate company (Disney)
Galavant premiered to a solid 2.0 last season, before falling to a 0.9 just two weeks later. It was considered one of the more surprising renewals of the season, and extraneous factors must have been a big reason for that. I don't know why ABC is valuing the show so relatively high other than the fact that there must be something we don't know about. That being said, I think The Muppets being a bigger brand may have a more compelling case for a renewal. I'm not saying definitively that either show will or should be renewed, but if one of them was, I would give the edge to The Muppets.

Edge: The Muppets

Will The Family Make It?
ABC All Access 

You would think that a 1.27 A18-49 value wouldn't be so hard to live up to, but The Family has to air between Once Upon a Time and Quantico, neither the ratings hits you may be led to believe based on Internet hype. Maintaining such a number may be hard. If it does well enough for a renewal, that's probably bad news for both Castle and Nashville.

When Will Uncle Buck and Secrets & Lies Air?

Looks to me like Secrets & Lies is planned for the summer, kind of like fellow anthology series Wayward Pines last season on FOX. If not, it's because The Family or more likely Of Kings and Prophets has been pulled from the schedule. Remember that the show's ad price was made when it supposedly was going to be a bridge for Nashville, so it may have lower standards if they push it to the summer.

In terms of Uncle Buck, the scenario that I see is that when the Friday block finishes, which has usually been in April, Uncle Buck does double-duty and is never heard from again. 

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