ABC Renew/Cancel Watch: American Crime Starts As a Likely Renewal

The Ratings Junkie

First, sorry for the slightly-below-average quality of the table, I usually copy and paste from a document but it got all wacky on me when I tried to do that this time so I had to take a screenshot instead.

Changes from Last Time
-American Crime enters in the Watching category
-Galavant enters as a likely cancellation

Bridge Shows and Certain Cancellations
This season, I am considering not ever placing a bridge or shortened series as a certain cancellation. So if you're a fan of Galavant, American Crime, Agent Carter, The Family, or The Catch and other sites are showing a certain cancellation prediction, you'll be seeing something slightly more optimistic here. The reason being that very few people expected Galavant or American Crime to get out of their first season alive, yet both defied the odds. Seemingly there are lower standards for these types of series, and a large part of Galavant's renewal may have been its tax break.

Why is American Crime a Likely Renewal?
I can't believe that I wrote that article headline, or even the underlined phrase directly above this sentence. But I think the tides have shifted in favor of American Crime. Since the finish of its critically-acclaimed first season, American Crime has racked up numerous award nominations,

TV Guide

including an Emmy win for Regina King. Of course, awards don't mean everything, but for a limited anthology series, it may just be worth keeping around. I was very surprised that it held its own in its move away from its Scandal lead-in, and think this is a case where looking at retention only may be misleading. It's doing just as well as Castle and Nashville and not far away from Quantico, and those are all fall shows! I don't expect American Crime to take a fall spot away from any of them, so they are not in direct danger of cancellation, but regardless it's impressive for the show.

Why is Galavant a Likely Cancelation?
Galavant premiered to a very weak 0.8 A18-49 rating this season, series low. But that series low only lasted a short period of time, as it sunk to a 0.6 rating in its second week on the air. Perhaps it had a large audience overlap with the Golden Globes, but one thing that is clear is that all four of its

Variety

episodes are likely to be fractional. I'm not sure if it still has that tax break this season, but despite the seemingly lower standards for bridge shows, they certainly must have some sort of standard, and I think Galavant may have gone below that threshold. This point holds especially true if you look at its ad rate, which values the show at more than double the rating it just received. I think The Muppets would be much better suited for that time slot next season, but it all comes down to expenses.