Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of April 1, 2016.
The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.
Rank
Show Title
Season Low/ High/Average
Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
--
--
2
NCIS
2.0 / 2.7 / 2.24
-6.7%
3
Life in Pieces
1.7 / 2.6 / 2.00
--
4
Scorpion
1.5 / 2.2 / 1.80
-21.7%
5
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.2 / 1.79
-28.4%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75
-16.7%
7
Supergirl
1.3 / 3.1 / 1.71
--
8
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.69
-26.5%
9
2 Broke Girls
1.5 / 1.7 / 1.63
-18.5%
10
Mike & Molly
1.6 / 1.7 / 1.62
-16.9%
11
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.47
--
12
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42
--
13
Limitless
1.1 / 1.9 / 1.39
--
14
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.33
-16.9%
15
Madam Secretary
1.0 / 2.0 / 1.26
-12.5%
16
Code Black
1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26
--
17
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25
-3.8%
18
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.4 / 1.14
-5.0%
19
Rush Hour
- / 1.1 / 1.10
--
20
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.4 / 1.05
-11.7%
21
Elementary
0.8 / 1.2 / 1.02
-21.5%
22
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91
-35.0%
On 3/25, CBS renewed Scorpion, NCIS: New Orleans, Mom, 2 Broke Girls, NCIS: LA, Madam Secretary, Blue Bloods, Hawaii Five-0, and Elementary for new seasons. All of these were correctly predicted by The TV Ratings Guide and have been marked as "Already Renewed" in the table.
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders has been upgraded to "Likely to be Renewed" status this week, as it continues to stay afloat in its first three episodes and slightly overperform in light of the cynical expectations. While it dipped slightly to a 1.3 in its third airing this week, that's still a fairly good result for a 10pm drama in the spring and is still higher than what Code Black averaged in the timeslot. It could be a good international sell for being part of a highly successful and recognizable brand. The Criminal Minds franchise is very lucrative for CBS and this midseason spinoff looks similar to the CSI: Cyber situation from last year, which did well enough in its limited first season to secure a renewal (even if it was sentenced to Sundays at 10). CBS could keep it where it is in the fall and hope it continues to be a solid companion to Criminal Minds, plug a hole on Sundays with it like CSI: Cyber temporarily did, or order more episodes for midseason. The network didn't have the greatest luck with new dramas this season. It's possible they are willing to settle for a familiar formula in the meanwhile and hope their next round does better. We'll see how it continues to rate in the coming weeks.
Rush Hour premiered to a weak 1.1 rating on Thursday. CBS doesn't own it. It's the fourth lowest-rated show on the network after just one episode. There's no incentive to entertain it as a legitimate contender for renewal with many healthier options available to CBS. It's "Certain to be Canceled."
