Ad Rates and Ratings: FOX Edition 2

The Ratings Junkie Saturday, April 02, 2016
If you've stuck with The TV Ratings Guide since the fall, or noticed or menu at the top, you probably figured out that I've been doing some research about the advertising rates of certain shows and the possible correlation to ratings. I have been working on a few modifications to my research, as follows:

-In the first edition, I stated: "Since the rates aren't that different this season from last season, let's say FOX is expecting another 1.415 average." Yeah, that's pretty lazy. So I took the time to figure out the approximate percentage change in ad rates year-to-year, using the ad rates given by Variety. I've adjusted the numbers accordingly below.

-It is worth noting that these ad rates are based on C3, or even C7, ratings. These ratings are not typically released to the public so the A18-49 numbers are our best indicators. But from the small amount of data released, it appears that most shows experience a tenth or two increase from A18-49 to C3 (some, like Scream Queens and Empire, are said to have increases even higher). The numbers presented below are still using A18-49 averages, but something to keep in mind is these numbers are most likely slightly deflated.

-Finally, I have read that networks are encouraged to slightly overprice an ad, because they don't want to price it too low and not make the maximum amount of profit. Meaning, the "expected number" using a 1:1 correlation could be slightly inflated in this respect. Regardless, they shouldn't be too far off.

OK, so FOX's ad rates fell 2% this season from last season, meaning the numbers below are 2% lower than the ones originally presented. I haven't deleted the original post though, so feel free to dig for it by using the search bar.

Now, for some numbers:
FOX average ad rate 2014-15: $152,744.25
FOX average ad rate 2015-16: $149,757.64
FOX A18-49 average 2014-15: 1.415
FOX A18-49 (possible expected) average 2015-16: 1.387

Again, the C3 numbers are slightly higher than the A18-49 numbers, and this research is still in the preliminary stages. But I wanted to share it with you readers anyway. Also, for FOX, they saw a 2% decline in ad rates y2y, but if Empire was taken out of the picture, it would be a much steeper drop than that. For now, I'll leave Empire in there until I figure out of using something more like the median ad rate is more telling. Again, work in progress. Here are the updated numbers:

-Bob's Burgers: 0.76 (M18-34)
-The Simpsons: 1.78 (M18-34)
-Brooklyn 9-9: 1.40 (M18-34)
-Family Guy: 1.65 (M18-34)
-The Last Man On Earth: 1.30 (M18-34)
-Gotham: 1.81
-Minority Report: 1.72
-Grandfathered: 1.25
-The Grinder: 1.23
-Scream Queens: 1.66 (W18-34)
-Rosewood: 1.03
-Bones: 1.06
-Sleepy Hollow: 1.39

Are these numbers telling of anything? Only time will tell. However, I've found that they may be an important predictor of whether that veteran bubble show will get renewed or not. It's not perfect, but it's something. If anyone wants to chip in and give critique or even help with my research, let me know!

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