| Canceled | Certain to be Canceled | Likely to be Canceled | Watching | Likely to be Renewed | Certain to be Renewed | Renewed |
| Blood & Oil | Agent Carter |
The Real O’Neals | The Catch | American Crime | Blackish |
|
| Of Kings and Prophets | The Family | Nashville | Castle | Fresh Off The Boat | ||
| Wicked City | Galavant | Dr Ken | The Goldbergs | |||
| The Muppets | Last Man Standing | Grey’s Anatomy | ||||
| How to Get Away with Murder | ||||||
| Marvel’s Agents of SHIELD | ||||||
| The Middle | ||||||
| Modern Family | ||||||
| Once Upon a Time | ||||||
| Quantico | ||||||
| Scandal |
Why is The Real O'Neals "Likely to be Canceled"?
Last night, The Real O'Neals posted a paltry 0.8 with a rerun of Fresh Off The Boat as a lead-in. With that, it could only tie Fresh Off The Boat in the key A18-49 demo, and according to Spotted Ratings' time-slot adjusted "True" metric, its number was weaker than Fresh Off The Boat's. It's going to look even uglier when the Wednesday comedies do even better in reruns. The Real O'Neals got ample exposure but is not showing any signs of life anymore, unlike Fresh Off The Boat last season. It's the weakest ABC comedy, and I simply don't think it's needed at that low of numbers. Even if given a lead-in upgrade, there is only so far it can rise. If the Friday multi-cams come back and ABC decides to add an extra comedy hour, they would have to premiere 3 new comedies in the fall. Now, a comedy expansion is pretty much impossible if the Friday comedies don't come back, and even then they would only need to premiere 2 or 3 new comedies. Now, let's take a look at how many they've premiered in recent years:
2015-16: The Muppets, Dr Ken, + 13-episode-old Fresh Off The Boat
2014-15: Manhattan Love Story, Selfie, Blackish, Cristela
2013-14: The Goldbergs, Trophy Wife, Back in the Game, Super Fun Night
So premiering 3 new comedies really isn't all that far-fetched. In fact, it would be on par or less than normal. For a time there I had a hunch that The Real O'Neals would get renewed, but the ratings are the ratings and I don't know if you can positively spin what just happened.
What's Next?
The plan is to get everything out of the Watching column no later than Friday, May 6, aka two weeks from this upcoming Friday. Right now, The Real O'Neals and Castle are the most "bubble-ish" shows of those not in the Watching column, but as I explained above, I think it is increasingly likely that The Real O'Neals isn't coming back. They have a couple plausible options as to how to fit 3 new comedies onto the fall schedule, if they plan to expand comedies that is. What do you think is most likely, readers?
Nashville and The Catch are on the bubble for now. I'm keeping a watch on the development of Still Star-Crossed, which I think is the main hurdle in the way of a renewal for The Catch, and I'm keeping an eye on the Castle contracts to see if Nashville still has a fighting chance.
What do you think of these predictions? What are your own predictions? Let me know in the comments below!