NBC Renew/Cancel #1 [2017-18]: ’The Brave’ is on the Chopping Block + ’The Good Place’ is a Certain Renewal

Predictions for 9/29/17

Welcome to the first official NBC Renew/Cancel post of the 2017-18 television season. With the exception of Blindspot, all of the new & returning NBC shows have premiered. First, here's the table to show where each show is standing. 


Show title [Average adults 18-49 rating/Most recent rating]

The Brave [1.3/1.3] - The military drama posted a 1.3 for its series premiere on Monday. That doesn't seem too bad until you realize that it had a 2.6 lead-in from 'The Voice'. This means that the series lost 50% of the reality show's audience for its first episode. Additionally, shows that air after 'The Voice' usually don't hold up well in week 2. 'Timeless' and 'Taken' fell 22% and 25% respectively for their second installments. A similar drop would put 'The Brave' at a measly 1.0 in the A18-49 demo. For a show airing in a lucrative timeslot, that's not enough to get by. If that wasn't enough, NBC decided to cancel a pilot encore in favor of one for 'True Crime'. Things are looking especially grim for this one.

source: futon critic

Great News [1.3/1.3] - Last night, 'Great News' premiered to a 1.3 demo. It was actually up from its first season debut and hit a new series high. Under normal circumstances, this would mean the show is safe. But, the comedy received a lead-in from 'Will & Grace' which posted a massive 3.0. This means that 'Great News' retained less than half of the former's audience. 'Will & Grace' is bound to drop in the following weeks and it'll likely take 'Great News' with it. Because of this, the series is a tossup until it is made clear if the show can stay in solid territory without a huge lead-in. 

Law & Order: True Crime [1.6/1.6] - Just like the shows above, 'True Crime' posted a solid number but it simply lost way too much from its 'This Is Us' lead-in (the latter posted a monstrous 3.9). I'll have to see how it does in week 2 before I push it in a 'cancellation' or 'renewal' category, but things aren't looking particularly great for it.

The Blacklist [1.1/1.1] - The veteran drama delivered a respectable 1.1 for its premiere. Despite moving to a new timeslot, the series was down just 15% from last year's premiere. If it can stay close to these numbers, it'll have no problem scoring another season. 

Law & Order: SVU [1.4/1.4], Chicago PD [1.3/1.3], Chicago Fire [1.5/1.5] - The three Dick Wolf dramas posted respectable ratings and are some of the network's strongest shows. There's not much stopping them from receiving additional seasons. 

Superstore [1.3/1.3] - The workplace comedy was up 63% from its finale and was only down 13% from its season 2 opener. 'Superstore' is also in its third season so a fourth season renewal would mean it would have enough episodes for a syndication package. It's a certain renewal.

The Good Place [1.3/1.4] - Last Wednesday, 'The Good Place' posted a 1.3 after the 'AGT' season finale (which posted a 3.0). It was down 43% from its year-ago debut and had relatively poor retention. But, the comedy actually rose from its premiere last night and posted a solid 1.4. That number is on par with last year's timeslot premiere which is an impressive feat for a serialized comedy. Because of this, it has been upgraded from 'Likely' to 'Certain Renewal'. 

Will & Grace [3.0/3.0], This Is Us [3.9/3.9] - Both shows have already been renewed and their massive premiere numbers justify the network's decision.

Poll of the Week

Will Great News be renewed or canceled?


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