Predictions for 9/29/17
Welcome to the first official NBC Renew/Cancel post of the 2017-18 television season. With the exception of Blindspot, all of the new & returning NBC shows have premiered. First, here's the table to show where each show is standing.
Key
Show title [Average adults 18-49 rating/Most recent rating]
The Brave [1.3/1.3] - The military drama posted a 1.3 for its series premiere on Monday. That doesn't seem too bad until you realize that it had a 2.6 lead-in from 'The Voice'. This means that the series lost 50% of the reality show's audience for its first episode. Additionally, shows that air after 'The Voice' usually don't hold up well in week 2. 'Timeless' and 'Taken' fell 22% and 25% respectively for their second installments. A similar drop would put 'The Brave' at a measly 1.0 in the A18-49 demo. For a show airing in a lucrative timeslot, that's not enough to get by. If that wasn't enough, NBC decided to cancel a pilot encore in favor of one for 'True Crime'. Things are looking especially grim for this one.
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| source: futon critic |
Great News [1.3/1.3] - Last night, 'Great News' premiered to a 1.3 demo. It was actually up from its first season debut and hit a new series high. Under normal circumstances, this would mean the show is safe. But, the comedy received a lead-in from 'Will & Grace' which posted a massive 3.0. This means that 'Great News' retained less than half of the former's audience. 'Will & Grace' is bound to drop in the following weeks and it'll likely take 'Great News' with it. Because of this, the series is a tossup until it is made clear if the show can stay in solid territory without a huge lead-in.
Law & Order: True Crime [1.6/1.6] - Just like the shows above, 'True Crime' posted a solid number but it simply lost way too much from its 'This Is Us' lead-in (the latter posted a monstrous 3.9). I'll have to see how it does in week 2 before I push it in a 'cancellation' or 'renewal' category, but things aren't looking particularly great for it.
The Blacklist [1.1/1.1] - The veteran drama delivered a respectable 1.1 for its premiere. Despite moving to a new timeslot, the series was down just 15% from last year's premiere. If it can stay close to these numbers, it'll have no problem scoring another season.
Law & Order: SVU [1.4/1.4], Chicago PD [1.3/1.3], Chicago Fire [1.5/1.5] - The three Dick Wolf dramas posted respectable ratings and are some of the network's strongest shows. There's not much stopping them from receiving additional seasons.
Superstore [1.3/1.3] - The workplace comedy was up 63% from its finale and was only down 13% from its season 2 opener. 'Superstore' is also in its third season so a fourth season renewal would mean it would have enough episodes for a syndication package. It's a certain renewal.
The Good Place [1.3/1.4] - Last Wednesday, 'The Good Place' posted a 1.3 after the 'AGT' season finale (which posted a 3.0). It was down 43% from its year-ago debut and had relatively poor retention. But, the comedy actually rose from its premiere last night and posted a solid 1.4. That number is on par with last year's timeslot premiere which is an impressive feat for a serialized comedy. Because of this, it has been upgraded from 'Likely' to 'Certain Renewal'.
Will & Grace [3.0/3.0], This Is Us [3.9/3.9] - Both shows have already been renewed and their massive premiere numbers justify the network's decision.
Poll of the Week
Will Great News be renewed or canceled?
Leave your thoughts and personal predictions in the comments below.
