Welcome to the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of May 6, 2016.
The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.
Rank
Show Title
Season Low/ High/Average
Y2Y Change
1
The Big Bang Theory
3.0 / 4.7 / 3.75
-12.8%
2
NCIS
1.9 / 2.7 / 2.20
-8.3%
3
Life in Pieces
1.7 / 2.6 / 2.00
--
4
Criminal Minds
1.5 / 2.2 / 1.79
-28.4%
5
Scorpion
1.5 / 2.2 / 1.77
-23.0%
6
NCIS: New Orleans
1.5 / 2.5 / 1.75
-16.7%
7
Mom
1.5 / 1.8 / 1.67
-27.4%
8
Supergirl
1.3 / 3.1 / 1.67
--
9
2 Broke Girls
1.4 / 1.7 / 1.61
-19.5%
10
The Odd Couple
1.3 / 1.7 / 1.55
-29.5%
11
Mike & Molly
1.3 / 1.7 / 1.52
-22.1%
12
Angel from Hell
1.3 / 1.6 / 1.42
--
13
Limitless
1.1 / 1.9 / 1.35
--
14
Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders
1.2 / 1.6 / 1.33
--
15
NCIS: LA
1.1 / 1.6 / 1.31
-18.1%
16
Code Black
1.0 / 1.5 / 1.26
--
17
Blue Bloods
1.1 / 1.5 / 1.25
-3.8%
18
Madam Secretary
0.9 / 2.0 / 1.21
-16.0%
19
Person of Interest
- / 1.2 / 1.20
-21.6%
20
Hawaii Five-0
1.0 / 1.4 / 1.13
-5.8%
21
The Good Wife
0.9 / 1.4 / 1.04
-13.3%
22
Elementary
0.7 / 1.2 / 0.97
-25.4%
23
Rush Hour
0.8 / 1.1 / 0.93
--
24
CSI: Cyber
0.7 / 1.1 / 0.91
-35.0%
Person of Interest premiered on Tuesday night to a 1.2 rating in the demo, which was slightly up from the Limitless finale last week (1.1). CBS announced the drama's fifth season as its last in March, so it reflects as canceled (or ended) in the table.
Criminal Minds has reportedly been renewed for a 12th season, which leaves about 33 percent of CBS's 2015-16 slate yet to be decided either way. The CBS staple is the network's #2 drama and #4 show overall with a 1.79 seasonal average to date, so there was little reason to believe it couldn't work out the necessary licensing issues with ABC Studios to return for another season.
The Odd Couple is defying the overwhelmingly pessimistic odds I had for it heading into its second season, as it has averaged an OK 1.55 to date, hitting a couple of 1.6's and 1.7's in recent episodes after premiering to a 1.5. That average is just barely below fellow returning comedies Mom (1.67) and 2 Broke Girls (1.61), as well as above the six-and-done Mike & Molly (1.52) and canceled newbie Angel From Hell (1.42). Given that it is the network's #10 show, already had a first season of 12 episodes, is owned by CBS, stars Matthew Perry, fits the network's comfortable multicam mold, and is seemingly working moderately well in this midseason/burnoff-ish strategy with some episodes airing on Thursdays and some on Mondays until the season is done, I think it stands a comfortable chance for renewal. Of course, it has The Big Bang Theory for a lead-in and is still down a sizable 29.5 percent year-to-year, but CBS's standards are a bit lower for comedy these days, especially with TBBT likely to be on the way out in the next few seasons. CBS had too many comedies ordered last season to fit them all in strategically, especially with Supergirl occupying a historical comedy hour on Mondays, which essentially forced Mike & Molly out and didn't give Angel From Hell much of a chance to grow. CBS could hypothetically duplicate that scenario next season, with 2 Broke Girls acting as the Mike & Molly throwaway, and they could always burn off The Odd Couple in midseason/summer should the situation present itself where they have a successful freshman batch and don't need it. There are a lot of possibilities, if CBS is willing to invest in more episodes. At this point, I think the show has given a fighting effort in its second season and will likely be renewed for another 10-13 episodes as upfronts are nearing.
