ABC Renew/Cancel Week 24: Scrubs Is In Stable Condition + ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness Champion Revealed!

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, one new series looks to be securing its position, while another remains on shaky ground. Keep reading for my updated ABC predictions, as the season nears its close.

Certain Cancellation:
N/A

Likely Cancellation:
Betrayal: Secrets & Lies (0.11, 0.09-0.13)
The Golden Bachelor (0.19, 0.16-0.28)

Leans Cancellation:
RJ Decker (0.18, 0.13-0.23)

Leans Renewal:
The Greatest Average American (0.23, 0.18-0.28)

Likely Renewal:

Celebrity Jeopardy! (0.31, 0.31-0.32)

Celebrity Wheel of Fortune (0.23, 0.15-0.31)

The Great Christmas Light Fight (0.18, 0.14-0.22)

Shark Tank (0.17, 0.11-0.24)

Shifting Gears (0.37, 0.31-0.45)

Certain Renewal:

20/20 (0.20, 0.12-0.32)

American Idol (0.45, 0.36-0.62)

America's Funniest Home Videos (0.32, 0.24-0.44)

Dancing with the Stars (1.36, 1.02-2.06)

Scrubs (0.48, 0.39-0.66)

Already Renewed:

9-1-1

9-1-1: Nashville

Abbott Elementary

Grey's Anatomy

High Potential

The Rookie

Will Trent

Already Canceled/Ending:

Dirty Talk: When Daytime Talk Shows Ruled TV (Miniseries)

Scrubs: One of the biggest surprises of the season may be Scrubs, which has averaged 0.48 over its first eight episodes, securing its place as ABC's #1 scripted program of the season. Like many revivals, its premiere rating just seemed too good to be true, and we had a warning sign on that same night, as the show shed a full tenth at 8:30. Revivals are notorious for premiering very high and dropped like a rock by the end of the season (even Night Court, which was barely even a revival, had a great start before crumbling). The risk for a precipitous drop feels higher for a show like Scrubs, which is well-loved today, but was a pretty poor ratings performer for much of its run (particularly for its ABC seasons).

There was risk in reviving a show that was (at best) a modest performer throughout its run, but it's pretty clearly worked out. Scrubs hasn't maintained 0.6s, but that was never going to happen. It's comfortably in the 0.4-0.5 range now, during the tough spring months, and that is worth celebrating. It's actually been an improvement on Shifting Gears (and it's held up better than that show did last year, too), which is very impressive, as Shifting Gears was already ABC's highest-rated series. While it and Abbott Elementary don't appear to be super compatible (their ratings often fluctuate in different directions), the two have formed an extremely impressive duo in a very tough slot, with huge competition from Survivor 50 on CBS and continued strong scripted competition from Chicago Med.

Scrubs will end its first season this week, and there's no risk of this first season being its last. Creator Bill Lawrence has already teased the possibility of a longer second season of the revival, strengthening the possibility of an ABC comedy expansion next year.

Scrubs' streaming performance, like Shifting Gears, has seemed tepid at best. After starting high on Hulu, it has crumbled, and it has rarely cracked the top ten since its debut, and often charts for only a day. ABC hasn't released any post-premiere data on the show's multiplatform performance, which indicates it's not giving them a ton to brag about. That gave me pause at first, but I think its incredibly-impressive linear performance and stability is more than enough to justify an upgrade. It's only the first season, and I think this would've needed to greatly underperform for ABC to even consider scrapping a high-profile revival after only nine episodes. It's overperformed on linear, and its likely-weak streaming is probably not a major concern at this moment.

Shifting Gears would likely be canceled before Scrubs, if ABC were in the mood to cut one of their solid linear performers that doesn't pull its weight on streaming - which I doubt they will be. I have no doubt that Scrubs is a certain renewal this season.

RJ Decker: After last week's downgrade, RJ Decker had a small rebound on linear last week, even as High Potential continued to decline. With a 0.18 behind a 0.25, RJ Decker didn't look too bad, which is an improvement from a few weeks of roughly 50% retention. I don't regret the downgrade, as I still think RJ Decker is easily the weakest show on ABC, and they don't need it. However, it absolutely still has a chance.

RJ Decker will move to 9 PM this week, and that is going to be a big test. Will Trent isn't exactly a better lead-in than High Potential, but 9 PM is a better slot than 10 PM. There's greater potential to reach an audience in an earlier hour, and if RJ Decker and take advantage of that, it will surely help its fairly-weak renewal argument. The show has been a pretty weak performer on streaming, performing worse than any other ABC drama. With linear ratings as weak as it has, this show is counting on streaming to show its value to ABC. As of right now, this show has minimal upside to ABC, and is the only scripted show on the network at obvious risk of cancellation.

ABC has also now renewed two of three dramas that were left awaiting renewal announcements, leaving RJ Decker as the last ABC drama left on the bubble. That doesn't mean it's getting canceled for sure, but it seems to indicate ABC hasn't seen anything to prompt a quick pickup. If they're trying to choose between RJ and picking up The Rookie: North, I expect The Rookie: North has a major advantage. They do have room for both, as their schedule remains pretty flexible (unlike CBS and NBC), but ABC hasn't gone out of their way to fill their schedule with scripted shows in recent years. They've also been developing and ordering shows outside of May in recent seasons (including RJ Decker itself), so they could still order a drama to series later this summer or in early fall and have it ready for midseason. ABC doesn't need to renew RJ Decker simply to fill a spot on the schedule, and it will be canceled if they don't see value in it. Even with it performing a bit better last week, it's the weak link on the schedule. With little concrete multiplatform data on the show, and signs that it's struggling on streaming, I'm betting that it's canceled in favor of a new show. It still leans cancellation.

The Rookie and Will Trent: Both of these veteran ABC dramas were renewed earlier today, to little surprise. The biggest surprise was how long it took ABC to renew both of them - especially Will Trent. Both have been listed as likely rentals, with the minor chance of an upset cancellation due to The Rookie's age and likely expense, and Will Trent's softer streaming performance. In the end, neither ever seemed to be in much danger this season, and were easily renewed.

ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness:

After four weeks of voting, the ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness voting has concluded, and we've got a repeat champion on our hands! Abbott Elementary has defended its title, holding off tough competition from The Rookie in an 88-71 vote. The Rookie led in voting last week, while Abbott Elementary led in voting in week two, making the two appear a fairly even matchup. Both have shown impressive strength in the tournament, but Abbott was able to show what made it a champion to start, and really began to pull away at the end of the week. This marks The Rookie's second time as the tournament's runner-up, and it makes Abbott Elementary the first two-time champion.

Thanks to all who voted over the last four weeks, and congratulations to Abbott Elementary on another impressive win, as it's named our readers' favorite ABC series for a second straight year.

Interactive Schedule:

The TV Ratings Guide	8:00	8:30	9:00	10:00
Mon	American Idol			The Rookie
Tues	Will Trent		RJ Decker	High Potential (R)
Wed	Scrubs	Abbott Elementary	The Greatest Average American	Shark Tank
Thurs	9-1-1		9-1-1: Nashville	Grey's Anatomy
Fri	Celebrity Jeopardy!		20/20
Sat	NBA Saturday Primetime
Sun	America's Funniest Home Videos		Celebrity Jeopardy! (R)	Betrayal: Secrets & Lies