Prediction Key:
Week 20 Predictions:
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| Shows' 18-49 demo average and weekly peak performance on Paramount+ are in parenthesis |
Hollywood Squares: CBS's intentions for a show are often hinted in how they schedule it. A Sunday show being moved down an hour is often a bad sign for its future (not necessarily for this year's Tracker, but more for The Equalizer last year), Watson initially being planned for a midseason launch this year hinted it was in trouble, and SWAT constantly being thrown across the schedule indicated that it was often an afterthought for them - hence CBS canceling it three different times before it finally stuck. Positive scheduling for lower-rated shows like Elsbeth or Watson last year also hinted that their weaker ratings wouldn't prove detrimental for their renewal odds.
CBS has indicated a clear lack of regard for Hollywood Squares in how they've scheduled it this season. First, it was announced to be airing Wednesdays at 10:30 behind an incompatible cooking show when CBS released their full-season scheduled last May. It's hard to expect a game show to thrive airing single half-hour episodes at 10:30, and I don't think the intention was for it to ever "thrive." CBS simply looks at the show as a time slot filler. It's something original to air instead of putting comedy repeats in the slot, or stretching Survivor or Culinary Cup by another half-hour.
That scheduling wasn't the only major concern. Partly through its Wednesday run earlier this year, CBS shifted the show from the 8 PM leadoff slot to 9 PM behind The Price Is Right At Night. The move didn't hurt Hollywood Squares' ratings much at all, but CBS taking the initiative to swap the time slots didn't indicate that. they were terribly pleased in how it was doing at 8, and Price Is Right did, indeed, perform better than Hollywood Squares had been.
Hollywood Squares' ratings have been as poor as one would expect in this new time slot. Its highest rating in three episodes at 10:30 has been a 0.15, despite Survivor always being above 0.90 just an hour before. America's Culinary Cup is certainly a major contributor to that, as its retention from Survivor is awful, but CBS starting the night with 0.9 and ending with a 0.1 is embarrassing.
It's not as if Hollywood Squares has shown great promise outside of Wednesdays, either. Its episodes on Friday also year did poorly, the Christmas episode drew a series low 0.10 (though again, its lead-in was dreadful), and a special Sunday airing drew just a 0.14 behind a 0.33 from 60 Minutes. Even considering the dismal situations CBS keeps putting this show in (which itself is a warning sign), the show is underperforming, and CBS has little reason to keep it, given how little they've seemed to care about it. It remains a likely cancellation.
America's Culinary Cup: As said above, America's Culinary Cup is not performing well. This week, it hit a series low 0.22 as it started far later than usual due to the combination of an extra-long Survivor and a presidential address interruption. That's just 24% retention from Survivor, which held its own despite that nearly half-hour interruption.
Even still, CBS continues to promote it - even using other Paramount networks to do so. It's aired repeats on Nick-at-Nite, has been promoted during cable March Madness games and during RuPaul's Drag Race on MTV. This isn't how a network normally treats a first-season reality show that is, by every definition, a major disappointment. It looks like a clear waste of that huge Survivor 50 lead-in, and The Amazing Race clearly could've done better in that slot. CBS swung for the fences by trying a different sort of show behind Survivor, and it hasn't worked. They're doubling down on it, and are either desperately trying to save it, or are simply continuing to promote a show that they plan to have on the schedule next season.
It doesn't necessarily have to return in this slot next season - if Hollywood Squares is indeed dead, then it can simply air on Wednesdays between Survivor cycles. Summer is another (remote) possibility, because early winter and summer are the only times CBS will likely have any room for anything other than what's already ordered (and maybe the two comedy pilots still in contention). Still, there is a clear place they could air it, CBS seems enamored with it (because they've long wanted a cooking series), and all the promotion they're giving indicates they still haven't given up. If it is coming back, the decision's likely to be announced soon - maybe within the next week. If CBS remains quiet on it after they announce their schedule, then it's time to ring the alarm bells. For now, they seem to be metaphorically standing by their man. It leans renewal.
CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness:
Seventeen shows entered the competition just a few short weeks ago, and now it's down to just two.
Ghosts has had a miraculous run this season considering its past. It was a first-round exit in the first two years of the tournament. It then finally advanced to the second round last year, but by less than half a percentage point, before it was demolished by FBI, earning just 22% of the vote. This year, it's turned things around in a major way. while NCIS: Sydney was very easy competition, it faced pretty stiff competition from NCIS the next round, and beat it. It then took down Sheriff Country, which itself had just had a major upset over #1 overall seed Marshals. It now becomes the first CBS comedy to ever reach the championship match.
CIA was just a 15 seed, and had no easy road to the championship. It took down Tracker, then FBI, and then Matlock - three much higher seeds with higher ratings and more developed fanbases. It did that while having the most votes of any show in all three rounds of voting, making it - presumably - the favorite to win it all. however, it did have just one more vote than Ghosts in the second round, and they've been fairly close overall. It's not a done deal for it yet, and it's this next week of voting alone that will decide who takes it all. You can vote for your favorite in the poll below.
