Below is a table used to predict the fates of scripted original series on Apple TV+. The table has been expanded since the last edition of this column; here’s a breakdown of it:
-Worldwide Audience Demand Multiplier (7-day window) reflects a show’s demand compared to the demand of the average series over the course of the past 7 days. A 1.0 is considered average, but keep in mind this includes shows that have ended or been canceled years or even decades ago.
-U.S. Audience Demand Multiplier (7-day window) is measured the same way as Worldwide Audience Demand Multiplier (7-day window), except only demand from the United States is counted. This is the country where all shows in the below table are produced. Credit goes to Parrot Analytics via TV Geek for these numbers.
-U.S. Audience Demand Multiplier (30-day window) refers to the demand a show receives over the course of a 30-day period.
-IMDb Rating is the score out of 10 given by users on the respected website IMDb. This is reported here as it is also reported by Parrot Analytics.
-Distributor refers to the distribution company of a series. It is typically easier for a show produced by the streaming service to be renewed than a show by an outside company.
-Last released refers to the last time a new episode the given series was released on the platform. ‘Last released’ is particularly important to predict Apple TV+ (more on that later).
This table is updated as of January 15, 2022.
Home Before Dark
Home Before Dark has been downgraded to a cancelation prediction. The slight uptick in demand in the United States in the 7-day window is promising, but it’s been over five months since the show last aired and the demand as it is is mediocre at best.
Schmigadoon
As recently as October, Schmigadoon was at a 12.0 U.S. audience demand multiplier in a 30-day window, the sixth-highest on Apple TV+ and third-highest for a comedy. Demand has since dipped into the 8s, with worldwide demand lagging behind greatly. It’s still their #3 comedy, but many dramas have overtaken it to push it far below the #6 ranking it used to enjoy. Maybe they’re waiting to see if they’ll be able to market it as a Grammy-winning show, but chances are they were aiming for higher accolades than Best Compilation Soundtrack for Visual Media. It missed out on Golden Globe nominations, and is not shaping up to be a musical show darling in the vein of Crazy Ex-Girlfriend or Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist. Maybe Apple is holding out to see if it gets nominated for any Emmys before making a decision, but as of now the best guess is cancelation.
Swagger
It’s only been a month since Swagger concluded its first season, so there’s still plenty of potential for a second season announcement. Given the relatively mediocre numbers across the board, though, it wouldn’t be something to bet on. It also appears that demand is decreasing at a significant rate too, at least in the United States. Apple TV+ has so many genuine drama hits that Swagger pales in comparison.
Amazing Stories
It’s unclear what Apple TV+ is waiting for if they intend on renewing Amazing Stories. It’s been over 21 months since the anthology series aired its 5-episode first season. At this point, it’s questionable if they even plan on making an announcement one way or another, but it remains as a Cancelation Predicted in the table.
Acapulco suffers from low demand, especially given it’s only been about six weeks since the first season was last released. Demand in the United States is falling significantly, with a 3.6 in the 7-day window compared to a 4.2 in the 30-day window. Perhaps it’s cheap enough for Apple TV+ to give the show a second chance, but it’s by no means a hit and at this point, it’d be tough to argue a renewal is imminent. Keep in mind, every renewed show in this table below Acapulco was renewed before the end of their respective most recent season.
Doug Unplugs, The Snoopy Show, Stillwater, Snoopy In Space, Get Rolling with Otis
Kids’ shows in general tend to have lower demand and take longer to get renewed than shows made for adults, so the process of predicting them can be a bit different. Of these shows, the safest bets for renewal are likely the two Snoopy shows, given Apple’s relationship with the Peanuts franchise, as well as Doug Unplugs, the highest-demanded kids show. Get Rolling with Otis is on the lower end of the chart, but with new episodes still being released, seems to be fair game for a chance at renewal. Additionally, while Stillwater’s performance is nothing to write home about, it’s tough to see Apple TV+ letting go of this acclaimed Peabody Award winner so soon.
Ghostwriter, Wolfboy and the Everything Factory, Puppy Place
In Ghostwriter’s case, the paltry IMDb rating certainly can’t be helping. Puppy Place has practically nonexistent demand that has only decreased in recent days. Wolfboy and the Everything Factory has a high IMDb rating going for it, but ultimately decisions come down to costs. Low demand leads to its cancelation prediction.