ABC Renew/Cancel Week 17: ABC Doesn’t Need Stumptown

This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, we're taking a further look at Stumptown, a once-promising part of ABC's lineup that's been struggling for some time. Keep reading to see if it's on the move (and to where!).

Certain Cancellation:
Emergence (0.5)

Likely Cancellation:
Stumptown (0.5)

Leans Cancellation:
Bless This Mess (0.7)
Schooled (0.7)

Leans Renewal:
For Life (0.6)
Mixed-ish (0.7)
Single Parents (0.6)

Likely Renewal:
American Housewife (0.6)

Certain Renewal:
Black-ish (0.6)
The Conners (1.1)
The Goldbergs (0.9)
A Million Little Things (0.7)
The Rookie (0.6)
Station 19 (1.0)

Already Renewed:
The Good Doctor
Grey's Anatomy

Already Canceled/Final Season:

Fresh Off the Boat
How To Get Away With Murder

Modern Family

Coming Soon:

The Baker & The Beauty

United We Fall

Stumptown: For some time, this show is one that left me a bit, well, stumped. It's had somewhat of an excuse for its low ratings, since Single Parents isn't exactly a massive lead-in and Chicago PD is mighty competition. It seems to be a favorite at ABC. It received a backorder, which was a sign of confidence in the show from ABC. There have been lots of signs that they're behind it. However, at this point, I'm more confident than ever before that the show won't be back for season two. For one thing, the show aired behind the Volcano Live special on Wednesday, proving it with a 0.8 lead-in that was probably watched live by most of its viewers. That didn't help it gain at all, suggesting that 0.4 is probably its ratings ceiling at this point. ABC can love the show all they want, but they're a business and the show is a big loser in the ratings department. There was plentiful interest in the show for the premiere in L+7 ratings, notching a 1.7 in that demo. For its latest episode, the show had a 0.9 in L+7. ABC can't monetize L+7 ratings (unlike C3 ratings), but the trends are worrying. If interest in the show is dropping in DVR ratings, it's probably dropping on streaming as well. ABC has emphasized how important the overall ratings picture is for its shows (they released the full ratings for multiplatform+35 for the premiere, touting its strong performance there), and all of the data here points to Stumptown having big drops across the season in every place. It seems to me like ABC doesn't have much incentive to bring the show back if it's not delivering for them anywhere. I'm downgrading it to a LIKELY CANCELLATION. It still could come back, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let us know in the comments below!