FOX Renew/Cancel Watch: Gotham Is Certain to be Renewed

Hey guys, I'm Alan, and this is the first official FOX Renew/Cancel predictions of the season. They will be posted weekly on Wednesday mornings, usually after the prelims come out. Below are my predictions and explanations for FOX scripted shows that have premiered so far.

FOX Scripted Average So Far: 1.84
FOX Scripted Average So Far Excluding Empire: 1.49
FOX Scripted Average This Week (From Last Wednesday To This Tuesday) Without Empire: 1.50

Certain Renewal

  • Empire (6.7)
  • Family Guy (1.5)
  • The Simpsons (1.5) (Renewed)
  • Gotham (1.6)

Likely Renewal

  • Brooklyn Nine-Nine (1.5)
  • The Last Man on Earth (1.4)
  • Scream Queens (1.6)
  • Grandfathered (1.5)

  • Bob's Burgers (1.2)
  • The Grinder (1.5)
Likely Cancellation

  • Rosewood (2.4)

Certain Cancellation

  • Minority Report (1.0)

Premiere week was a mixed bag for FOX. All of its shows except Empire were down y2y, and a lot of them had very ugly percentage drops. The good new is OMG Empire and the surprisingly high debut of Rosewood. The bar of renewal is also set much lower if all FOX shows drop.

Minority Report was DOA with a 1.1, and the 0.9 this week did not help. FOX can't be happy with this kind of performance, and it's doing worse than what Sleepy Hollow probably would have done in the first two weeks at least. It will probably be replaced by some other genre show like Lucifer or Lookinglass. Gotham's 1.6 premiere was underwhelming, but it had a good hold in week 2. It should be fine by being the #3 (likely #2 in the future) FOX show.

Scream Queen's debut numbers was surprisingly disappointing for all the promotion and hype it got. But, its A18-49 ratings are above average (for now), and its A18-34 is very high which could keep it profitable as FOX knows how to sell A18-34 and W18-34 to advertisers. 

The Sunday block was way down y2y, but that was on a football night with the Simpsons/Family Guy crossover. That was bound to happen especially because of the big spring drops, but football is coming next week to boost the numbers a little. I upgraded Bob's Burgers from my preseason predictions because it's probably the stablest FOX show and a good utility player. 

The Tuesday comedies premiered on par with the Sunday block, but we'll have to see how they hold up in the long run because they are likely to drop more as new shows.

And Rosewood premiered way above average and expectations. But, I'm not quite convinced that it is the real deal. Audience reception has been terrible from my POV, and it's a likely candidate for a large premiere drop. Empire may have got it good sampling, but I don't think it will be able to prop it up enough for a renewal.

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