Summer Renew/Cancel - September 4: Mistresses Will Likely be Canceled

Hi! In case this is your first time reading my summer renew/cancel predictions post, I'm Hunter and I am posting these predictions each weekend this summer, covering the summer shows on the five major broadcast networks. This is week twelve, which will be the penultimate week of my predictions this summer. (Renew/cancel will continue for the regular season, in which each network will be separate. I will not be doing the regular season renew/cancel, but I do plan to return to renew/cancel next summer.) This week Under the Dome was shockingly canceled, being only my second miss so far this summer, the first being Aquarius. Also this week the finales of The Whispers, Mistresses, and Rookie Blue all aired. Here are the summer shows divided into categories, and then my in-detail thoughts on a few of them. Enjoy!

Format for predictions:
Show title (network) (average adults 18-49 rating)

Certain to be Canceled
Dates (CW) (0.1)
Extant (CBS) (0.7)
Golan the Insatiable (FOX) (0.5)
The Whispers (ABC) (0.8)

Will Likely be Canceled
Mistresses (ABC) (0.7)
Rookie Blue (ABC) (0.7)
Significant Mother (CW) (0.2)

Mr. Robinson (NBC) (1.0)

Will Likely be Renewed
The Carmichael Show (NBC) (1.1)

Certain to be Renewed
Zoo (CBS) (1.1)

Fate Determined
A.D.: The Bible Continues (NBC) CANCELED
American Odyssey (NBC) CANCELED
Aquarius (NBC) RENEWED
The Astronaut Wives Club (ABC) CANCELED
Beauty and the Beast (CW) RENEWED
Under the Dome (CBS) CANCELED
Wayward Pines (FOX) CANCELED
Welcome to Sweden (NBC) CANCELED

Last week I upgraded Mistresses because I thought that its chances of renewal were enough better than that of Rookie Blue that it should be considered a "toss-up". This week, Mistresses fell to a 0.6 rating, tying the series low that was only once received before, on July 2nd. I still think there is a possibility that ABC will renew one of Mistresses or Rookie Blue, but the chances of both are fairly equal, and there is a significant possibility that ABC will renew neither, which may look bad from a PR point of view, but is deserved when looking at the ratings.

I'm glad that, ratings-wise, I gave The Carmichael Show a second chance. Why? Because it Empire-d! (That's what I'm calling it when a show rises from week one to week two.) Due to generally positive critical reception, unlike Mr. Robinson which had very negative critical reception, The Carmichael Show went up to 1.2 (a 1.2 that was as close as it could be to a 1.3) and 1.1 from last week's 1.1 and 0.9. This means it is doing better than Mr. Robinson, and also, if renewed, it will likely rise more or drop less than Mr. Robinson will season-to-season. It is for these reasons and the fact that I think that NBC will renew at least one of their summer comedies that I have moved The Carmichael Show to "will likely be renewed". Now the question is, will NBC renew one or both summer comedies? They won't have any leftover comedies to air during the summer next year most likely, and I don't see The Carmichael Show going to the regular season, at least this year, so most likely NBC will either renew both, or renew one and order another comedy off-cycle, as they did with The Carmichael Show this season. Also, they could just have one comedy next summer, and order like 10 episodes and air two per week for 5 weeks. There are many options, and whichever NBC chooses determines Mr. Robinson's fate.

After the shocking cancelation of Under the Dome, many have wondered what it meant for fellow CBS summer dramas Extant and Zoo. For Extant, it is really confirming its future cancelation. Under the Dome was averaging 1.0, Extant is averaging 0.7, why would they keep Extant around if they are getting rid of Under the Dome? For Zoo, this added one more thing to the list of reasons why Zoo is the most for-sure show this summer. It was already incredibly stable, doing better than Extant's first season, and is getting CBS more money from Netflix than they are getting for Under the Dome or Extant from Amazon. The fact that CBS picked up BrainDead indicates that they still think that summer dramas work. They canceled Under the Dome, and Extant is a huge flop this year, so that leaves Zoo as the reason that CBS thinks that summer dramas work. Zoo's fate is more certain than that of any other show this summer whose fate is undecided.

Next week I will make a guess on what NBC will do with comedy, meaning a decision on Mr. Robinson, and I will talk about all of the shows whose fates are undecided, which as this point is ten shows. Come back next week for the final summer renew/cancel post of 2015!

Do you agree or disagree with my predictions? Leave a comment with your thoughts!

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