CBS Renew/Cancel Watch: 'Scorpion' Certain to be Renewed

Welcome to the first CBS Renew/Cancel Watch of the fall season! I'm Jordan and I'll be posting every Saturday with my predictions on the renewal prospects of CBS's fall shows. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis follows. My current predictions are as of September 26, 2015.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Season Low / High / Average
Year-to-Year Change
The Big Bang Theory
Life in Pieces
- / 2.6 / 2.6
- / 2.5 / 2.5
- / 2.2 / 2.2
- / 1.9 / 1.9
NCIS: New Orleans
- / 1.7 / 1.7
Blue Bloods
- / 1.3 / 1.3
- / 1.2 / 1.2
Hawaii Five-0
- / 1.0 / 1.0

The Big Bang Theory: Already renewed.

Life in Pieces: Life in Pieces premiered to a decent 2.6 in the key demo, but it's a rather underwhelming result considering it only held about 55% of The Big Bang Theory's audience (4.7). Comparatively, The Odd Couple premiered to 3.1 last season out of a 4.4 TBBT (retaining 70.5%). LIP did improve the timeslot in comparison to The Millers' season two premiere (2.2) which retained only 50% of Big Bang's audience (4.4) in 2014, but Pieces may also match that by its second episode. It remains "On the Bubble" until I have a better idea of where it's headed in the coming weeks.

NCIS: The premiere improved 25% over its season 12 finale (2.5 vs 2.0) and was down around 14% from the season 12 premiere (2.5 vs 2.9). While it's seeing a natural decline with age, another season of low 2s for this long-running moneymaker is just fine for CBS. I currently predict NCIS as "Certain to be Renewed."

Scorpion: Scorpion is a success story for CBS. While down 31% from its 3.2 premiere last September, Scorpion remains one of the network's highest rated dramas and should be comfortably on its way to season three. I currently predict Scorpion as "Certain to be Renewed."

Limitless: The first new drama offering of the season from CBS had an OK premiere, growing out of its NCIS: New Orleans lead-in by 12% (1.9 vs 1.7). On a network that drags a cooler of low-rated shows around, this new blood is likely appreciated, but how it holds up in the coming weeks will be more telling of its worth to the network. With most new shows, second and third week declines are naturally expected (unless you're Empire), so Limitless will remain "On the Bubble" until I have a better idea of where it plans to settle.

NCIS: New Orleans: The newest NCIS spinoff returned with a 1.7, consistent with its season one finale and down a sizable 32% from its series premiere (2.5) just last year. In its present state, the ratings should be good enough to keep it afloat if consistent, especially with the mothership leading into it. I currently predict NCIS: New Orleans as "Certain to be Renewed."

NCIS: LA: The seventh season premiere wasn't too generous, falling a sharp 37% from its sixth season premiere (1.2 vs 1.9) and, so far, -25% from its season six average. The show is still a profitable part of the NCIS franchise, but it's been losing ground for the past couple of seasons and needs to find its footing quickly. Even Friday drama Blue Bloods managed to score better in its season premiere (1.3), although it did have less competition in its hour. I'll see how the show holds up going forward before revisiting my prediction. I currently have NCIS: LA listed as "Likely to be Renewed."

Blue Bloods: The sixth season premiere improved 30% from its lead-in (1.3 vs 1.0). The drama was up 8% from its season five premiere and remained consistent with its 1.3 demo average from last season overall. It has been a relatively steady performer for CBS in recent seasons, providing good enough ratings for Fridays at 10. As such, I currently predict Blue Bloods as "Likely to Be Renewed."

Hawaii Five-0: Also returning for its sixth season last night, H50 was down 17% from its previous season premiere and its season five average. It currently holds the lowest premiere rating for any CBS scripted show of the week. CBS may need to consider wrapping up this drama and using its slot for another low-rated veteran. I currently predict Hawaii Five-0 as "Likely to be Canceled."

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What are your current predictions for the shows that have premiered so far? Feel free to share them below. Check back next Saturday for another edition of the CBS Renew/Cancel Watch, with new predictions to come following the season and series premieres of Criminal Minds and Code Black, respectively.

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