ABC Renew/Cancel Watch

Welcome! I'm about to go through my predictions for which fall ABC scripted shows will be cancelled and which will be renewed. 

Certain to be Canceled Likely to be Canceled Likely to be Renewed Certain to be Renewed
Quantico Blood & Oil Nashville Once Upon a Time
Dr Ken Castle How to Get Away with Murder The Muppets
Wicked City Last Man Standing

Fresh Off The Boat

Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D

The Middle

The Goldbergs

Modern Family


Grey’s Anatomy

So I'm going to go through all the shows now and explain my predictions a little bit:

Certain to be Cancelled
  • Quantico: This is already a fan-favorite that has been cursed with a terrible time slot: Sunday at 10. Remember that success on TVbytheNumbers and SpoilerTV comment boards don't necessarily (and rarely do) correlate to the show's success relative to other shows in the ratings. I doubt this one goes far.
  • Dr Ken: This Friday multi-cam comedy entry has very little buzz and despite fitting in with the Tuesday-Wednesday comedies on paper, it comes across as a not-as-funny version of Cristela. And we all know how that went.
  • Wicked City: Wicked City, which was moved up to a winter premiere after the retooling of Of Kings and Prophets and time slot change of Quantico, will be airing Tuesdays at 10 after an underwhelming Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. There has not been too much buzz as of now, and this prediction could change some more with time and more promotion by the network. But for now, I think that this will just be another show fallen to the Tuesday at 10 time slot. It may be time to try out a veteran there.
Likely to be Cancelled

  • Blood & Oil: I see this as being a very mediocrely-rated show, being in the range of previous time slot occupant Secrets & Lies (which usually hit mid 1s with the deviation of a few tenths of a ratings point). So its renewal seems to be a little bit on the fence depending on how it does relative to the other new shows, but I think ABC has better prospects.
  • Castle: This is a kind of bold move to predict as cancelled, one that I do not see many other sites making. It has pretty much been safe throughout most of its run, but a steep ratings decline last season combined with the age factor may be enough for this show to be retired. It would require ABC to spend more time marketing Monday, but if they are willing to do that than I don't see a reason for Castle to continue past Season 8 with these ratings.
  • Last Man Standing: This show has suddenly kind of drifted away from ABC's main comedy focus after the breakout successes of The Goldbergs, Blackish, and to a lesser extent Fresh Off The Boat. With all the new comedies this season being marketed as "family" comedies, there are only two off-beat factors which may keep this one going. One is syndication money, but being on the Hallmark Channel it will probably be minimal, and not enough for ABC to accept a lowered licensing fee from 20th Century FOX. The other is if ABC wants to continue its multi-cam Friday comedy block experiment going, but with so little success out of it I think they are more likely to go all-reality or move a veteran there.

Likely to be Renewed

  • Nashville: The fact that Nashville is keeping its plum Wednesday time slot instead of being dumped to Sunday tells me that that ABC has future plans for this show.
  • How to Get Away with Murder: I'm being overly cautious with this one. Limited series tend to drop after a long hiatus, and I highly doubt this show will match the feats of its first season, especially after Scandal crashed in the spring. It should still pull in some good numbers, and combined with the Shondaland factor should be renewed. But I'm just being cautious because if I see an abnormal crash to any returning show, it's this one.

Certain to be Renewed

  • Once Upon a Time: Even though I think Once Upon a Time will come down to earth this season without a Frozen arc in the fall, it's a very creative way for Disney to be incorporated in an ABC show. After all, they do own ABC. I see no reason to cancel this show and am kind of surprised that it doesn't have a syndication deal yet (correct me if I'm wrong?). It may actually suit well if Disney Channel wanted to experiment with a more adult night block.
  • The Muppets: Most expect this show to be huge, at least at first. It may crash, but I think Kermit, Miss Piggy and co will be returning for a second season, possibly as ABC's #1 comedy.
  • Fresh Off The Boat: I think if ABC is to cancel Last Man Standing, they would renew Fresh Off The Boat to maintain a healthy relationship with 20th Century FOX. It fits in with their comedy genre and should see a boost from The Muppets in the fall. This prediction is very subject to change depending on how it holds midseason.
  • Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D: A major disappointment in the ratings? Kind of. But this is attached to Marvel, which is attached to Disney, which again owns ABC. Plus it's in its third season, so at the very least syndication will save it. This would be another great candidate to be rerun on a hypothetical adult nightly Disney Channel block.
  • The Middle: The Hecks have so far stood the test of time and people are still tuning in to see what they do next. It's strength relative to other shows was at its high last season, and I think it will continue to be reliable enough for a renewal.
  • The Goldbergs: Even if it crashes (which I do expect about a 10% drop for the show this season since it's gotten just a fraction of the summer promotion it did this season), The Goldbergs is safe for syndication reasons.
  • Modern Family: We'll probably have to get a little more used to that 2.3 that Modern Family hit for
    its season finale, but that doesn't mean it won't get renewed. I expect to see this on the air for at least a few more seasons, even if it limps to the finish line.
  • Black-ish: As arguably ABC's primary child to take care of in the comedy department, I think ABC will do all it takes to get this show to syndication, and we may see it behind Modern Family for at least these next three seasons (which I think would mark the end of Modern Family).
  • Grey's Anatomy: With my prediction that Castle will be retired, I think it would be too much to think Grey's Anatomy will go in the same season. But with an increased number of Shondaland shows being developed, Grey's Anatomy may not be needed so much within the next couple years. At this point I think they will just wait it out and try not to retire two long-running shows at once. I think it will be Castle this season, followed respectively by The Middle, then either Modern Family or Grey's Anatomy, followed by the other one.
  • Scandal: Despite a spring crash, saying that Scandal will end this season would be a rather bold statement to make. I think it has more time and monetary value left in it, so no need to worry Scandal fans!
What do you think of my predictions? Leave a comment in the section below and maybe it will be featured as Comment of the Week on Saturday. Also, I will be replying to EVERY original comment (meaning not necessarily replies but I will do my best to keep the conversation going!).

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