Reality Renew/Cancel Part 2: Mixed Results for New Entries, Including Supermarket Sweep, The Bachelorette, Card Sharks and Shark Tank

It's been a busy few weeks for reality shows on broadcast, with multiple premieres across the networks. We're in for a very busy debate, so keep reading to see where all of these new premieres will land in their initial predictions!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation: 
Card Sharks

Leans Cancellation:
48 Hours: Suspicion
Greatest #AtHome Videos

Leans Renewal:
Ellen's Game of Games
Who Wants To Be A Millionaire

Likely Renewal:
Supermarket Sweep
Undercover Boss
Weakest Link
World's Funniest Animals

Certain Renewal:
48 Hours
60 Minutes
American Ninja Warrior
America's Funniest Home Videos
The Bachelorette
Big Brother
Celebrity Family Feud
Dancing with the Stars
Dateline NBC
I Can See Your Voice
The Masked Singer
Match Game
Penn & Teller: Fool Us
Press Your Luck
Shark Tank
The Voice
Whose Line Is It Anyway?

Already Renewed:
The Amazing Race
Hell's Kitchen

Coming Soon:

The $100,000 Pyramid
The Bachelor
Beat Shazam
The Chase
Come Dance With Me
The Con
Ellen's Greatest Night of Giveaways
The FBI Declassified
Generation Gap
The Great Christmas Light Fight
Home Sweet Home
The Hustler
LEGO Masters
Making It
MasterChef Junior
Mental Samurai
Small Fortune
That's My Jam
True Story
Who Do You Think You Are?

Supermarket Sweep: The newest game show reboot on ABC, the Leslie Jones-hosted grocery game show has done very respectably in its three episodes. There is of course a caveat there: as I said, it has aired two episodes. It has seven more episodes to drop to levels low enough to cancel it. That's what happened to Kids Say the Darndest Things, which was canceled after slippage throughout the season. Sweep had a better start and a better week two rating than Kids Say, so it's not a perfect comparison, but either way, I'm gonna be careful here. 0.8 is definitely certain renewal territory, but it will remain a LIKELY RENEWAL until I have more data.

Card Sharks: Even though Supermarket Sweep is doing swimmingly at the start of the night, there's been a major eyesore on the ABC Sunday lineup each week: Card Sharks. Joel McHale's show started off okay in summer 2019, but dropped through the season, to levels low enough that I assumed it would be canceled. It was renewed, but didn't make it to summer, and that might be what killed it. In-season isn't a great slot for a show like this, which thrives with minimal competition. Airing against football (and at 10 PM!) is not ideal, and ratings have been awful. It's hard to imagine ABC wanting another season of this. It's a LIKELY CANCELLATION, only because it may not air all of its episodes in its current Sunday fall slot and could return in a better slot down the line, allowing for a ratings bump.

The Bachelorette: One show that made a successful move to fall is The Bachelorette. While it's not huge on the level of parent show The Bachelor, it's doing pretty much the same as its early season 15 ratings, and it was the top summer show that season. That's what I call a success. This is ABC's strongest franchise and they clearly won't kill off one of its most popular entries. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

The Voice: It's down, obviously, but The Voice is still an undeniably valuable part of NBC's lineup. With a 1.12 average so far this season, it's the #5 show on TV, and remains one of the top weekly performers. It provides NBC with consistently strong nights twice a week and has for about a decade. It's obviously not going anywhere, and is a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Ellen's Game of Games: It only aired two episodes in its fall run, used by NBC as a quick cover until This Is Us could return. It absolutely bombed in that time, down 45% year-to-year. The premiere drew OK ratings, but episode two saw a massive decline and hit a 0.4 in the preliminary ratings, not far from the ratings for repeats of the show. It'll be back later on in the season, where we'll get more data on it, but with the ratings declines and the controversies surrounding DeGeneres herself, it's in a lot more danger than it's ever been in. It LEANS RENEWAL but could truly go either way. 

Who Wants To Be A Millionaire: A solid success for ABC in season one, the celebrity revival of Millionaire has slumped majorly in season two. It's pulling respectable-enough ratings at the moment, but it's dropping a bit each week and who knows where it'll end up, ratings-wise. It's not holding onto the Supermarket Sweep lead-in all that well, and is down a heart amount from season one, so it's in some trouble. It's not the most problematic part of the ABC lineup, and I do think it'll make the cut but it's not the strong performer it appeared to be late into spring. Pending further data, this one LEANS RENEWAL.

World's Funniest Animals: This show has been a very solid performer for CW by Friday standards, with larger viewer totals than a lot of shows in its slot and strong repeat results at 9:30. It's hard to imagine it not coming back and I'm upgrading it to LIKELY RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll below!

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