It's been another busy week on ABC, as the Alphabet Network has premiere three dramas, completing the rollout of their fall schedule. Included in this is veteran series A Million Little Things, sophomore drama For Life, and newbie Big Sky. Keep reading to see where they all end up!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
For Life (0.4)
Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.7)
Blackish (0.5, 0.4-0.6)
Coming Soon:
Call Your Mother
Mixed-ish
Rebel
The Rookie
Women of the Movement
A Million Little Things: I wouldn't exactly say that its 0.7 out of a 1.3 for Grey's Anatomy is a great return, but A Million Little Things isn't really doing any worse than it has in previous seasons. Even with a big lead-in, a 0.7 is still a very solid result for 10 PM, and makes the show ABC's top 10 PM show thus far. It averaged a 0.71 in season two and drew a 0.73 in its first 10 PM episode last year (with a larger lead-in), and also drew a 0.7 for its finale. I'm expecting a 0.6 next week and probably some 0.5s down the line, but that is still enough for a fourth seasonl, given that ABC fully owns the show and they seem to be very supportive of it. It starts as a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Big Sky: David E. Kelley's new show got off to something of a disappointing start on Tuesday, with a 0.7 behind the Bachelorette's 1.4. The BachelorVerse audience isn't keen on tuning into shows outside of the franchise, so the weak retention is expected, but it's still a weak start for a show with a heavy promotion push and a big lead-in. I can't place a 0.7 show in a cancellation category, because that's still a very acceptable number at 10 PM, but the show will need to hope for a strong hold across the season. For now, it LEANS RENEWAL, pending further data.
For Life: Before it premiered, I was expecting it to be a renewal underdog. Its ratings last season barely justified a second season give its co-owned status, but this does seem like a show that ABC wants to work, which gave me pause. After its premiere, I'm more confident in a cancellation prediction. Granted, its Blackish lead-in wasn't any asisstance at just a 0.4, but premiering to an unrounded 0.38 is not a sign that the show will be a strong long-term player for ABC. Aside from Card Sharks, it's already the weakest 10 PM hour on ABC and is actually a bit weaker than the filler program The Con was in the slot. Decisions aren't made solely on Live+Same-Day ratings anymore, so an extremely strong performance on digital platforms could save it, but I doubt that ABC will renew every scripted show on its fall lineup and this show seems like the clearest option for the chop. It LEANS CANCELLATION.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll below!
