 |
| CNN |
Network | A25-54 | A18-49 | A18-34 | Total viewers |
FOX News | 3.85 | 2.95 | 2.05 | 13.129 |
CNN | 3.55 | 2.98 | 2.19 | 8.897 |
MSNBC | 2.09 | 1.69 | 1.22 | 7.630 |
FOX Business | — | 0.12 | — | 0.623 |
Unsurprisingly, Election Night saw much higher ratings than subsequent nights. While FOX News has no issues out-rating competing networks on regular nights, CNN was competitive in all three key demos.
Election Night most notably saw the calls of Ohio, Iowa, and Florida in favor of President Donald Trump. While President-elect Joe Biden was thought to be competitive in all three states, Trump won all three by wide margins. A hint of a Biden landslide faded when those three states were gone and his lead in Texas disappeared.
The most controversial moment of the night came when FOX News called Arizona for President-elect Joe Biden. FOX News and The Associated Press were the only two major media outlets to call the state for Biden before his election days later. This marks the first time Arizona was called for the Democrat since 1996, when former President Bill Clinton flipped the state in his landslide re-election. Biden also flipped the second district of Nebraska, picking up one electoral vote that increased the chances of a 269-269 electoral college tie.
The eventful night finished with President Trump addressing viewers, celebrating his wins in some key states while also openly questioning the results in others. His announcement to bring a case to the Supreme Court surprised many, given it looked as though he had a good chance at re-election. At the time, he had large leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania and a smaller lead in Wisconsin, three states that were widely expected to decide the election. President Trump’s numbers were also strong in the battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina.
Night Two
Network | A25-54 | A18-49 | A18-34 | Total viewers |
CNN | 2.66 | 2.19 | 1.55 | 7.212 |
MSNBC | 1.15 | 0.80 | 0.44 | 4.973 |
After Election Night, FOX News dropped official election coverage in favor of their traditional prime time programming of The Story, Tucker Carlson Tonight, Hannity, and The Ingraham Angle. While they oftentimes discussed the ongoing election and provided updates when necessary, they did not create a second live event spectacle that CNN and MSNBC did. When faced with the two options, viewers overwhelmingly chose CNN. The A18-34 ratings demonstrate MSNBC’s trouble finding young viewers.
Night Two saw two major calls: major news outlets projected President-elect Biden as the winner in Michigan and Wisconsin, flipping two states which former President Barack Obama won twice while Biden was Vice President. After losing Ohio and Iowa by large margins the previous night, Biden’s ability to flip Michigan and Wisconsin came into question. Controversy ensued when President Trump took to Twitter to declare himself the winner of Michigan, a claim that was not backed up by anyone.
Meanwhile, President Trump began to make up ground in Arizona, putting into question FOX News’ and AP’s Tuesday night projection. Had votes stopped being counted after that night, President-elect Biden would have won the election, 270-268. While Nebraska’s second congressional district and Maine’s second congressional district only award the winners one electoral vote each, the way the election stood after night two demonstrated their importance.
Night Three
Network | A25-54 | A18-49 | A18-34 | Total viewers |
CNN | 2.52 | 1.95 | 1.21 | 6.860 |
MSNBC | 1.11 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 5.070 |
FOX News also sat out Night Three, with CNN and MSNBC continuing to be the only two cable news to carry election coverage. While CNN saw small ratings declines from the previous night, MSNBC held its A18-34 audience and only dropped 0.02 ratings points in A18-49. It also saw a slight increase in total viewers. The ratings holds were much better than one might imagine, with viewers not yet getting tired of election coverage.
On Night Three, viewers saw margins tighten in Pennsylvania and Georgia. President Trump was once up by more than ten percentage points in both states, but it became apparent he may not win the states. The states became pure tossups, making President Trump’s chances at re-election diminish.
Shortly before the Night Three coverage, President Trump interrupted national news broadcasts to give a press conference. In it, he continued his claims that there was mass fraud in the election, with his lawsuits against swing states ongoing and attacks on Pennsylvania’s voting count process elevated. Once again, he essentially declared victory. CNN aired the press conference in its entirety, while MSNBC treated it like they treat many Trump press conferences—by quickly cutting away. It should be noted that ABC, CBS, and NBC also cut away from the conference in favor of their national news broadcasts, while FOX News joined CNN in full coverage.
Night Four
|
Network |
A25-54 |
A18-49 |
A18-34 |
Total viewers |
|
CNN |
2.13 |
1.69 |
1.06 |
6.137 |
Friday marked the last night of coverage before Joe Biden became the President-elect. MSNBC went back to airing their regular prime time programs, while CNN aired another night of Election Night in America. Its ratings were significantly lower than those of the day before, likely due in part to Friday being a lower-viewed day, alongside potential election fatigue.
Margins tightened even more in key battleground states, with Biden now leading in Georgia and Pennsylvania. Had the race been called on Friday night rather than Saturday morning, Biden would have still had over 270 electoral votes. Meanwhile, the Arizona-goes-to-Biden call by FOX News and Associated Press on Tuesday night became even more controversial, as President Trump slowly but surely tightened Biden’s lead.
Night Four marked the last night before Pennsylvania, Nevada, and the election were all called for Joe Biden. Overall, Biden narrowly flipped three states that President Trump narrowly won in 2016: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Biden comfortably flipped the second congressional district of Nebraska. Meanwhile, President Trump took swing state status away from Ohio and Iowa, two states that voted for former President Barack Obama twice but voted for Trump in 2016. He also kept Florida, while flipping no states won by Hillary Clinton. When the race was called, Biden was narrowly ahead in Arizona and Georgia, which would be the first time a Democrat won either state in the 21st century.
The TV Ratings Guide’s Electoral College Prediction Map vs. The Actual Results
On Friday, October 30, The TV Ratings Guide posted an electoral college projection map. It was based on FiveThirthyEight polling averages as well as Joe Biden’s polling performance compared to Hillary Clinton’s actual performance in 2016. Whether because of this methodology or an outside factor, The TV Ratings Guide’s map proved to be one of the most accurate.
The map published on October 30, which can be found here, successfully predicted President-elect Biden’s underperformance in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. While most had him up between six and ten percentage points (Leans Biden), I had Biden winning by no more than five percentage points (Tilts Biden). Biden actually did underperform our map’s projections, but we did foresee a closer race than most others.
The TV Ratings Guide’s map also correctly predicted a Leans Biden result for Minnesota and Virginia, a prediction that was more pessimistic for Biden compared to many others.
The biggest miss came with Utah, which was a much different race in 2016 when local conservative Evan McMullin’s candidacy played a large factor in the state’s results. I also underestimated President Trump’s support in Nebraska and its first and second congressional districts, with some blame placed on the extremely limited polling. President-elect Biden also appeared to underperform in Illinois, something none but one outlier poll with a small sample size predicted.