ABC Renew/Cancel Week 11: Station 19 Won’t Burn Out Any Time Soon

Last week, ABC's entire Thursday lineup returned from hiatus after going off the air in November. Most notable was Station 19, which premiered its third season over six months after season two wrapped. Keep reading for my initial prediction for it, plus an update on one of ABC's comedies that has flown under the radar in the renew/cancel this year.

Certain Cancellation:
Emergence (0.5)

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Bless This Mess (0.7)
Schooled (0.7)
Single Parents (0.7)
Stumptown (0.5)

Leans Renewal:
Mixed-ish (0.7)

Likely Renewal:
American Housewife (0.6)
A Million Little Things (0.8)
The Rookie (0.6)

Certain Renewal:
Black-ish (0.6)
The Conners (1.1)
The Good Doctor (0.8)
The Goldbergs (0.9)
Station 19 (1.2)

Already Renewed:
Grey's Anatomy

Already Canceled/Final Season:
Fresh Off the Boat
How To Get Away With Murder
Modern Family

Coming Soon:
The Baker & The Beauty
For Life
United We Fall

Station 19: Its performance behind Grey's Anatomy left something to be desired in previous seasons, with retention that wasn't quite what you'd expect for a show so deeply connected to its lead-in, but after getting pushed to midseason for season three, Station 19 showed it had some life in it. Its 1.2 premiere was the second-highest rating the show ever received (tied with three other episodes), something that shouldn't be taken for granted in such a down time for ratings. It's almost certain that the show will drop heavily in upcoming episodes, considering that this premiere was tied in closely with the midseason premiere of Grey's Anatomy, continuing plots that had occurred in the Grey's winter finale. Without such a hook, it's probable that the show will soon hit the 0.8s and 0.9s that it was hitting in spring 2019, or even lower. Even still, with so many dramas and comedies in far worse shape, that will certainly be enough to assure a renewal for the spinoff of their #1 scripted show. In a season where the most recent ratings for their two new fall dramas combined is a 0.7, I fail to see how Station 19 could find itself in any danger. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

American Housewife: This show's performance on Fridays has been impressive, considering that shows in far cushier slots are performing equally (or worse). Its performance earned it extra episodes and a move off of Fridays onto Wednesdays. It's a performance that warrants an upgrade, especially considering the state of ABC comedy, but it's going to have to wait. I won't be making any prediction change until after its move to Wednesdays to assess its performance there, as the show doesn't exactly feel like a network priority whatsoever and therefore isn't a show I feel comfortable upgrading until the picture becomes more clear. It remains a LIKELY RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and don't forget to vote in the poll of the week!

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