Renew/Cancel Predictions: How Did We Do Vs. The Competition?

The Ratings Junkie Monday, May 15, 2017

There are still 4 shows whose fate is yet to be decided: Chicago Justice and Trial & Error on NBC, as well as 24: Legacy and Prison Break on FOX. It's expected that if the latter two come back it'll be announced a while from now, while who knows what the time frame is for the former two. Regardless, every site is predicting renewal for all except Trial & Error, so regardless of what happens, the standings will not change. So, here are the results.

Methodology: 2 points for a correct prediction, 1 point for a "push", 0 points for an incorrect prediction

6th Place: SpottedRatings' Renewology--159 points

Renewology is new to the game this year, and uses SpottedRatings' "TRUE" metric to determine which shows will be renewed and canceled. In essence, it's a formula trying to do better than human predictions. Unfortunately for it, it missed 17 predictions, which included shows such as The Great Indoors and The Real O'Neals that a formula can't tell have been dead for quite some time. Guessing next year the all-powerful Spot will revise it a bit. Most of its misses were because it was overly optimistic to shows that got canceled.

5th Place: TV Watch Us--163 points

I believe TV Watch Us came in 2nd or 3rd place last season, so this was a step down for it. They really had a few unfortunate misses, such as Son of Zorn. There were likely many close calls this season, but unfortunately the final decisions seemed to be contradictory to their predictions quite a few times.

4th Place: TV Predictor--165 points

TV Predictor, like Renewology, is also new to this (assuming it isn't JB's pet project, as the running joke goes). As such, they had the potential to really embarrass themselves, but didn't. It too had misses like SHIELD, but it also called The Catch and Code Black correctly, which not every site got. Certainly not a terrible first outing.

3rd Place: TV Grim Reaper--170 points

There was quite a large gap between 3rd and 4th place; TV Predictor would have needed to have 3 correct predictions with TV Grim Reaper getting all three incorrect in order to catch up. While making it sound like he knows everything, he doesn't--none of us do, and that's what makes this so fun. One key loss this year for him was New Girl, which scored a short, final season renewal.

2nd Place: TV by the Numbers' The Cancel Bear--171 points

At this point, the Cancel Bear has really become synonymous with Renew/Cancel predictions, and I'm not sure that's about to change either. With a new owner, TV by the Numbers showed that while a much different site than when it first started, it is still capable of holding its own against the competition it basically created. At first, we all laughed at it for calling a renewal for Timeless, but that ended less than two days later.

1st Place: The TV Ratings Guide--174 points

We did it again! For two years in a row, The TV Ratings Guide beat the competition in Renew/Cancel predictions. Although a last-second change in heart for 2 Broke Girls and Code Black weren't in our favor, a last-second change in heart for Rosewood and Elementary proved to be beneficial. We were also the only website to call The Exorcist correctly, meaning (so far) the only one with a perfect record for FOX (not to brag, of course). Other key correct predictions included Dr. Ken.

What do you think? How were your own predictions? Let us know in the comments below!

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