Predicting the 2016-17 Season: ABC New Shows (UPDATED)

The Ratings Junkie Saturday, May 20, 2017

Secrets & Lies
OK, technically not a new show, but it only aired 10 episodes, took a season off, and is an anthology. It might as well be a new show. I don't think we'll be seeing the ratings that we saw in its first season given how much time it took off and its much weakened lead-in. However, it still should be a decent time slot improvement.

Prediction: 1.02
Actual: 0.75

It's hard to say what Conviction's competition will be, considering NBC is premiering new drama Timeless and CBS is shifting Scorpion into the time slot. Regardless, it should be a tough time slot. It won't be a perfect match with Dancing with the Stars, but it'll still do better than Castle. Not a breakout hit, but not a complete flop either.

Prediction: 1.27
Actual: 0.64

American Housewife
American Housewife, one of two new comedy entries this fall for ABC, will be airing on a revamped Tuesday night sandwiched in between The Middle and Fresh Off The Boat. Let's call it second-tier comedy night, outside of maybe The Middle. It's not getting any hype. It'll manage better than The Real O'Neals, but its success will largely depend on how its lead-in does.

Prediction: 1.18
Actual: 1.44

Speechless has much more of a chance succeeding considering it'll be airing on Wednesday. That being said, the Wednesday at 8:30 time slot isn't exactly a hit machine. It created Suburgatory's success (for a season) and grew The Goldbergs, but it was also home to flops like Family Tools and mediocre-at-best-rated shows like Back in the Game, Suburgatory Season 3, and The Neighbors. Speechless will more than likely be one of those, weakening Wednesday. We'll see what their standards are when the ad rate is released, but I think they'd be naive to expect Speechless to replicate The Goldbergs' success in this time slot.

Prediction: 1.37
Actual: 1.57

Designated Survivor
Designated Survivor is by far the most anticipated ABC show this season, and possibly the most anticipated one on all of broadcast. The problem? It'll be airing at 10pm, a lower-viewed hour of television. It has its work cut out for it. It'll do OK, but not as well as a lot of people are expecting, probably premiering well and fizzling out once the election is over. Regardless, it'll be a huge improvement over Nashville.

Prediction: 1.49
Actual: 1.26

On paper, Notorious has a great time slot, airing after Grey's Anatomy. I don't have data on all shows, but it's been reported that just 55% of Grey's Anatomy's Live + Same Day viewing is actually live. So its live lead-in will be in the low 1s, most likely. It'll do respectably, but it'll be hard to tell if it's enough to bump Scandal to 10pm.

Prediction: 1.46
Actual: 0.87

Downward Dog
Downward Dog wasn't meant with the most positive reaction. It's first-look promo on Television Promo's YouTube channel instantly had more down votes than up votes, and Jimmy Kimmel kind of made fun of the show on various occasions during ABC's own upfront. It's a very high-concept show that could be sampled by some dog lovers, though it shouldn't be given a priority time slot. But here are predictions for various time slots anyways:

Sunday Bridge Show: 0.68
Tuesday at 8:30: 0.95
Tuesday at 9:30: 0.87
Wednesday at 8:30: 1.12
Actual: TBA
Imaginary Mary
ABC looks to be on good terms with Adam F. Goldberg right now (who if you couldn't guess created The Goldbergs). This one has been getting mixed early reactions, and has reminded many of the DOA Angel from Hell, with others criticizing the cast. The good news for Imaginary Mary is it has more of a chance landing a Wednesday time slot than fellow midseason sitcom Downward Dog. It won't be a breakout hit and a renewal would be dependent more on the creator's name. I predict it does OK, not great, not completely DOA.

Sunday Bridge Show: 0.88
Tuesday at 8:30: 1.24
Tuesday at 9:30: 1.02
Wednesday at 8:30: 1.41
Actual: 0.90, Tuesday at 9:30

Still Star-Crossed
The announcement that Still Star-Crossed would be ordered to series made for a whopping five Shondaland dramas on ABC in the 2016-17 season. Only Dick Wolf has more of a presence currently on broadcast TV (with 4 Chicago shows and 3 Law & Order shows on the rotation). It's described as a Romeo and Juliet sequel story. Judging by early reactions, people didn't ask for this one, and would rather stick with the Shonda Rhimes classics. Here mare my predictions, which may very well even be optimistic in some cases.

Monday at 10: 1.01
Wednesday at 10: 0.96
Thursday at 9: 1.33
Thursday at 10: 0.91
Actual: TBA

Time After Time
This one is based on legendary author H.G. Wells. Back-in-time shows haven't done the best as of late, so I don't have the greatest of hopes for this one. ABC will be able to have the entire season on its website thanks to the new Warner Brothers deal, but will it make much of a difference? I think it could fit OK with Once Upon a Time (if it indeed does air Sunday at 9), but not so much in another time slot.

Prediction: 0.97
Actual: 0.56

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