FOX Renew/Cancel: End of Season Wrap-Up

Upfronts are ending and the season is coming to a close, so now is the time to wrap up FOX Renew/Cancel. Below is a chart of the fates of all FOX scripted shows:

In total, FOX renewed 13 shows (counting the already-renewed Bob's Burgers), canceled 9 (counting the final-season-announced Bones), and has left both 24: Legacy and Prison Break unannounced. This could be an X-Files-like scenario where the shows come back, but not immediately.

This year, FOX Renew/Cancel had a perfect record with no incorrect predictions, save for the two shows that have yet to be decided. The predictions more or less followed a simple formula: compare the show's ad rate relative to the rest of the network to the show's Live + Same Day A18-49 ratings relative to the rest of the network. Now, we know that that demographic isn't what it used to be and there is much more that factor in, this is what is publicly available.

Last year, the correlation correctly predicted the cancelations of Castle and Nashville, as well as the renewals of Bones and Grimm, among other shows. It wasn't exactly great at freshmen or sophomore shows. As Polyester Poontang pointed out, ad rates have more to do with expectations for the show, but regardless, this has been something that happened to have a good track record. When using it, I focus specifically on shows that are "bubble" veteran shows. So how did it do this season?

Well, it told me that all three of The Last Man On Earth, New Girl, and Brooklyn Nine-Nine would be renewed. That's not something all sites predicted. If there was any doubt about Gotham, a show that got held back longer than many other veteran drama renewals, the correlation also nailed that one. It also said that Rosewood was getting renewed, and between that, The Mysteries of Laura, and Undateable, I've deemed it useless for sophomore shows. The only real miss for it was Sleepy Hollow, and even then, it was only off by one point. Thankfully, I ignored it when making my own predictions, as it was still a show that was under 50% of FOX's average ratings.

Perhaps I'll also take a look into what it said for the other networks to see what happened there. Without it, I'm not 100% sure I would have predicted renewal for all three of that comedy trifecta.

What do you think? Leave your thoughts in the comments below!

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