FOX Renew/Cancel Update

It's already May, meaning that it's time to make final predictions. Below is the table, as well as analysis for every show. Although no predictions have changed, each show will be analyzed.

The Relative Ratings Targets
Bob's Burgers6501953
The Simpsons155838126
Son of Zorn126053102
Family Guy129428105
The Last Man On Earth10189583
Brooklyn Nine-Nine10180382
New Girl10232983
Scream Queens12143898
Lethal Weapon164853134
Hell's Kitchen7756163
The Exorcist5055141
Making History8103566
24: Legacy 138720112
The Mick10357384
Shots Fired140132113
Prison Break131766107
Kicking and Screaming 10251683
MasterChef Junior8660970
Sleepy Hollow5686046

The Relative Ratings

The Table

So the relative ratings didn't get Rosewood right, but that's just like The Mysteries of Laura and Undateable last season, adding further evidence that it doesn't work well for sophomore shows. Nevertheless I did downgrade it to a cancelation recently so it was a correct prediction. That leaves for 10 correct predictions with 13 series left in limbo, as of this writing.

Those Live Action Comedies
FOX's trio of live action comedies (New Girl/Brooklyn Nine-Nine/The Last Man On Earth) is in my opinion the hardest thing to predict aside from ABC's Once Upon a Time/SHIELD/Quantico situation. Of all those shows, I think New Girl has the least chance of getting a new season. Last Man On Earth is probably coming back because of relations with Lord Miller Productions, who is expected to lost both of their new shows this season, not to mention that they own the show. Additionally, Brooklyn Nine-Nine will almost certainly get a 5th season for the sake of its syndication deal. That would put New Girl in a tough place, given that they also have the animated trio and The Mick renewed.

However, Brooklyn Nine-Nine's 5th season may not air on FOX, as they won't have nearly as much to benefit from it as does NBC Universal and TBS. Therefore, I think a move to Hulu and/or TBS is very much possible. If it does happen, that's still a correct prediction. Ditto with The Last Man On Earth, which I could see going to the niche FXX network, given that it's a serialized show whose ratings probably aren't about to rise any time soon. In fact, if Son of Zorn didn't collapse without football I'm not sure we'd even be talking about chances for Last Man On Earth.

The Rest
I can see FOX brining back 24: Legacy for PR purposes, though it may not be next season. The same goes with Prison Break, whose revival I consider to be more successful. With the cancelation of Rosewood, I think FOX could be getting rid of Sleepy Hollow's low ratings too, though I wouldn't be surprised with an Exorcist renewal. I think there's a chance one of the two gets renewed, and I'm slightly ignoring the fact that Sleepy Hollow's relative rating is one point ahead of the predicted target. Should I be ignoring it? Time will tell, usually the correlation beats me but I just can't see Sleepy Hollow returning, and the margin between the target and actual is so small too.

FOX has cleaned up Fridays with Rosewood and Sleepy Hollow now officially canceled. It's tough to tell if this means similarly-rated The Exorcist is a goner too, or if this means there's more schedule space for it. Stay tuned, but for now it's still in the renewal predicted category.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments below!

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