New Show Hit/Miss Spring 2017 - Chicago Justice

Tonight, the fourth series in Dick Wolf's Chicago franchize premieres. How will it perform, and what may cause it to perform that way? Some ideas are ahead!

What May Cause Chicago Justice to be a Hit?

The Chicago name
Chicago Fire, Chicago PD, Chicago Med. They all rate well, and even the weakest one (Med) will be around for at least 5 or 6 seasons. The Chicago franchise is strong, and may even be stronger than the Law & Order franchise (whose third spin-off, Criminal Intent, was moved from NBC to USA after six seasons).

LAW & Order
Dick Wolf, the man behind the Law & Order and Chicago shows, had a long-running success with the original Law & Order, which lasted 20 seasons. While it was more of a police show, the show was a legal drama as well (hence the Law part of the title). Chicago Justice should be more interesting to the Dick Wolf fans than Chicago Med, or even Chicago Fire because of that.

Getting it started with a crossover
Not only did Chicago Justice get a backdoor pilot in Chicago PD last season, like PD and Med did in Chicago Fire the springs before their debuts, but Justice gets to get started as its own series with a cross-over something that PD and Med didn't get. As a result, it gets even more of a chance to draw in the fans of the other Chicago shows, and ensures that none forgot about it in the last year.

Minimal competition on broadcast
Madam Secretary is weak, Time After Time is untested, and Family Guy and The Last Man on Earth are after a completely different audience than Chicago Justice. There is likely an audience out there with nothing to watch on Sundays at 9:00, possibly after watching NCIS: Los Angeles on CBS at 8:00. Chicago Justice is calling to them, come watch NBC.

What May Cause Chicago Justice to be a Miss for NBC?

Too much Chicago (see: Law & Order: Trial by Jury)
First show, success. Second show, possibly a bigger success. Third show, decent performer, but not as successful as the other two. We have seen this pattern before, with Law & Order. The original was a success, and SVU is still on today. Criminal Intent, like Med, performed fairly well, but NBC ultimately canceled it after six seasons. And Trial by Jury, the fourth Law & Order show to come to NBC, only lasted one season of thirteen episodes. Another similarity, Trial by Jury was a full-on legal show, unlike the original which was a police/legal hybrid. Chicago Justice could be Law & Order: Trial by Jury 2.0.

Sunday night
All of the networks have struggled with Sunday nights recently, and if we look at the past few years on NBC, it seems that the only show to have done well on the night is Little Big Shots. Of all of the scripted shows since 2012 to have aired on the night, only The Carmichael Show was renewed for another season after the Sunday season (and it showed weak ratings when it didn't have an original Little Big Shots leading into it). Premiering this show on Sunday could make it doomed to fail as those in the past have.

What to Expect for Chicago Justice?

I think that the Chicago name, legal focus, and minimal competition will help this show to succeed, although the Law & Order: Trial by Jury similarities worry me about this show.

Which factors do you think will have the most effect in causing Chicago Justice to be a hit or a miss? Leave your thoughts in the comments! And, if you haven't already, vote in the poll on its premiere numbers!

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