ABC Renew/Cancel - March 10: Time After Time is Certain to be Canceled

Last week, I had three shows as toss-ups. This week, one of those shows moves. Next week, I expect to move the other two. Also this week, it was an exciting week for ABC, with the series premiere of Time After Time, the season premiere of The Catch, and the returns of Once Upon a Time and Designated Survivor.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)
Time After Time (0.7)

Likely to be Canceled
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)

Once Upon a Time (1.0, 0.9-1.3)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)

Likely to be Renewed
The Catch (0.8)
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.1-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 1.9-2.6)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.7, 1.3-2.0)

Fate Determined
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Scandal (RENEWED)

*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7

Time After Time: A week ago, I wondered if Time After Time could bring life to Sunday nights, where ABC has been struggling recently. The answer was a resounding no. Its two-hour premiere averaged a 0.7, and it got 0.6 in the 10:00 hour. The question is no longer will Time After Time be renewed or canceled, it's will it be pulled or allowed to air out its run.

The Catch: Last season, ABC renewed The Catch, despite its low ratings. This was most likely do to the fact that it is produced by Shonda Rhimes. It was getting 0.9s and 1.0s at that time, then, after it was renewed, dropped to 0.8 for its two-hour season finale. This year, it returned to a 0.8. As every year the ratings average gets lower, this would be about equivalent to a very high 0.9 (by which I mean almost 1.0) last season. Shows tend to drop from premieres, but not as much in seasons that are not their first. If The Catch drops to 0.7 and stays there, that would be just a little bit lower than last year's 0.9s (which would translate to a very low 0.8). Those 0.7s should be good enough, unless The Catch isn't shown as much grace this season, as it is more reasonable to hope for growth from a show in its second season than its third. On the other hand, the ratings necessary for a Shondaland show to get renewed could be very low, and 0.6s may cut it. It's hard to say with The Catch, but I am leaning renewal just enough to put it in the likely to be renewed category. We will see in the coming weeks if it gets downgraded or not.

Designated Survivor: Despite a long break, Designated Survivor returned up this week. Its 1.3 was above the 1.2 from its fall finale, and tied its high outside of the higher rated first four episodes. The show held up better than I had expected, and the logic from before as to why it is certain to be renewed still applies. Congratulations, Designated Survivor, for being ABC's highest rated drama not on Thursdays.

Agents of SHIELD: I feel like my upgrading of this show was based on an overreaction to the promo ABC released for Once Upon a Time. So, back down it goes. I think that ABC would rather have Once Upon a Time go through whatever sort of reboot they are considering than move this show to Sundays.

Once Upon a Time: There have been rumors that the decision on Once Upon a Time are coming this week. However, I just don't feel comfortable making a decision one way or another on it at this point. I will force myself to next week, if the decision doesn't come within the next 7 days.

The Real O'Neals: I think one of this or Once Upon a Time will be renewed, so the struggle I expressed above applies here. I will force myself to make a decision next week.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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