ABC Renew/Cancel - March 31: Imaginary Mary is Likely to be Canceled

This week, new comedy Imaginary Mary premiered on ABC. Also, one ABC show is moving up a category, and it may move up one more category next week if it performs as well as it has been, or move back down if it doesn't. And, the three shows in my certain to be canceled category became official, two this morning and one on Wednesday, when it was also pulled from the schedule.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled

Likely to be Canceled
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
American Crime (0.4, 0.3-0.5)
Imaginary Mary (1.4)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)

Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)

Likely to be Renewed
The Catch (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.0-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 1.9-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.0, 0.8-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.6, 1.3-2.0)

Fate Determined
Conviction (CANCELED)
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Notorious (CANCELED)
Scandal (RENEWED)
Time After Time (CANCELED)

Imaginary Mary: While you may imagine that the ratings were higher if you really liked the show, Imaginary Mary premiered to a 1.4 on Wednesday, losing 3 tenths from its lead-in of The Goldbergs. This proves that it is definitely weaker than Speechless, which usually loses 2 tenths from The Goldbergs and premiered even with it. Imaginary Mary will be making the move to Tuesday, like Fresh Off the Boat and The Real O'Neals did in previous seasons, and their trend indicates that Imaginary Mary will be making its Tuesday premiere around 0.9-1.0 out of probably 1.1-1.3 from Fresh Off the Boat (depending on if it gets a bump without This Is Us on, and how much of one). It's unlikely it would stay at those numbers, because most shows don't, leading to Imaginary Mary proving it is a weaker show than The Real O'Neals.

Dr. Ken: After its third consecutive week of 80% retention from Last Man Standing, I have decided to upgrade Dr. Ken to a toss-up in preparation for its season finale. If it is able to get similar retention for the finale, then I will predict renewal. If not, I will go back to predicting cancelation. At the moment, I would say that it has a 50% chance of being renewed.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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