ABC Renew/Cancel - March 17: American Crime is Likely to be Canceled

The ratings were severely delayed this week, but we have finally gotten them now, so now we know how American Crime's third season premiered, how Time After Time and The Catch held up in the second week of their seasons, how Once Upon a Time and Designated Survivor held up in their second week back, and how The Real O'Neals rated for its season finale. Two shows are on the move this week in their predictions, and American Crime enters.

Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)

Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)
Time After Time (0.7, 0.6-0.7)

Likely to be Canceled
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
American Crime (0.5)
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)


Likely to be Renewed
The Catch (0.8, 0.7-0.8)
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.0-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 1.9-2.6)
Once Upon a Time (1.0, 0.9-1.3)

Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.6, 1.3-2.0)

Fate Determined
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Scandal (RENEWED)

*Trimmed to 10 episodes October 25, predicted certain to be canceled since September 23
**Announced it wouldn't receive additional episodes November 8, predicted certain to be canceled since October 7

American Crime: In season one, American Crime had horrible retention from Scandal, but got a surprising renewal, due to its critical acclaim, and ABC hoping for awards. American Crime got awards, and in season two it was difficult to say if ABC would renew or cancel the show. I thought they would cancel it, but they ended up renewing it. This season, I expected to predict renewal for American Crime. However, I expected it to grow out of Time After Time. Instead, it lost a tenth from its low-rated lead-in. While I really don't want to predict cancelation and have American Crime prove me wrong for the third year in a row, I just don't see ABC renewing this a fourth time, even with how acclaimed this season is.

Once Upon a Time: Shortly after I posted the last ABC renew/cancel article, it was reported that contract negotiations were in progress for four Once Upon a Time cast members. Then, this week, Once Upon a Time stayed stable, despite Daylight Savings Time, while The Real O'Neals went down a tenth in its season finale despite a stable lead-in. So, I have decided to give the advantage to Once Upon a Time. However, contract negotiations could go south, or Imaginary Mary could perform well, so Once Upon a Time isn't unable to move from its current "likely to be renewed" prediction.

The Real O'Neals: I have made my decision! As I explained above, the ratings of Once Upon a Time and The Real O'Neals this week, in addition to news about contract negotiations for Once Upon a Time leaned me enough in the direction of favoring Once Upon a Time in this renewal race. I give Once Upon a Time about a 55% chance of renewal, and The Real O'Neals about a 45% chance.

The Catch: I am cautiously keeping The Catch at "likely to be renewed" this week. It went down a tenth, but that's not too surprising. If it falls another tenth within the next couple of weeks, it will be downgraded. 0.7 out of 1.4 is not a good rating, and The Catch is no longer in its first season, but still it has Shonda Rhimes as an executive producer to help it out.

What do you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!

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