CBS Renew/Cancel: 'Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders' Returns

Welcome to the TV Ratings Guide's CBS Renew/Cancel Watch. All scripted, primetime shows are included in the prediction table below once they have premiered for the season. An analysis of any new prediction changes or observations follows. My current predictions are as of March 10, 2017.

The key to the right indicates which colors are associated with each prediction. The data in the table includes season lows, highs, and averages (Adults 18-49 demo), as well as the year-to-year changes for returning shows that have not already been officially renewed or canceled. These are provided for reasoning with and understanding my predictions. The shows are ordered by their season averages against only other scripted CBS shows.

Rank	Show	Season Low / High /Average	Y2Y Change
1	The Big Bang Theory	2.8 / 3.8 / 3.27	-12.4%
2	NCIS	1.6 / 2.2 / 1.82	-17.8%
3	Kevin Can Wait	1.3 / 2.7 / 1.76	--
4	The Great Indoors	1.1 / 1.9 / 1.55	--
5	Bull	1.3 / 2.2 / 1.53	--
6	Mom	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.45	-14.1%
7	Criminal Minds	1.2 / 1.9 / 1.42	-21.3%
8	NCIS: LA	1.0 / 1.7 / 1.40	+5.8%
9	Superior Donuts	1.2 / 1.9 / 1.38	--
10	2 Broke Girls	1.2 / 1.7 / 1.37	-14.9%
11	Man with a Plan	1.1 / 1.6 / 1.34	--
12	Life in Pieces	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.30	-35.0%
13	Scorpion	1.1 / 1.5 / 1.24	-30.2%
14	NCIS: New Orleans	1.0 / 1.5 / 1.22	-30.4%
15	Hawaii Five-0	1.1 / 1.4 / 1.20	+5.5%
16	Blue Bloods	1.1 / 1.3 / 1.20	-3.3%
17	MacGyver	0.9 / 1.7 / 1.12	--
18	The Odd Couple	0.9 / 1.1 / 1.02	-27.3%
19	Code Black	0.7 / 1.2 / 0.97	-23.5%
20	Madam Secretary	0.7 / 1.1 / 0.94	-21.6%
21	Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders	- / 0.9 / 0.90	-21.6%
22	Pure Genius	0.7 / 1.0 / 0.86	--
23	Training Day	0.7 / 0.9 / 0.75	--
24	Elementary	0.5 / 0.8 / 0.68	-29.5%
-	Doubt	0.6 / 0.8 / 0.68	--
26	Ransom	0.3 / 0.8 / 0.45	--

Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders premiered its second season to a 0.9 in the A18-49 demo on Wednesday night. There are a few ways to evaluate this result. First, it's down 44 percent from CM:BB's season one premiere last year (1.6), down 10 percent from its season one finale (1.0), and down 27 percent from its season one average. While it's inarguably down compared to its own stats, it is better than both of Doubt's episodes in the slot a few weeks ago (0.8 for E1, 0.6 for E2), which was promptly removed from the schedule after its second airing. Lastly, the premiere rating was down slightly from Code Black's average in the slot this past fall (0.97), and matches the medical drama's season two finale rating from February 8, 2017.
The renewal of CM:BB was born largely in the absence of solid drama development last season, with Limitless and Rush Hour cancelled, Supergirl renewed but moved to The CW, and Code Black being the only freshman drama given a second shot, contingent on a modified cast. CBS likely renewed the Criminal Minds spinoff as a safety net for another weak drama slate, but this year they ended up getting Bull and MacGyver, even if Pure Genius, Training Day, and Doubt didn't work. The truth is that they really don't need Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders, especially if its second season is already starting off fractional. There's already a case against keeping Code Black around, but while both are owned by the network, that show seems to have more confidence behind it, aired both of its seasons in the fall, and has more episodes produced. However, the advantage a recognizable brand spinoff like this one has is potential international syndication value, which is what kept CSI: Cyber afloat for two seasons.
As it's only aired one episode this season, I'm placing Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders On the Bubble. More airings will indicate whether it's intending on fighting a show like Code Black for a renewal. I'm still banking on the idea that CBS will just scrap CM:BB and use Code Black on Sundays next season, even though the latter barely made it by last year and perhaps its luck ends this season.