FOX Renew/Cancel Week 1: Funeral Plans Arranged For ’Monarch’


Predictions for 9/24/22

Photo Credit: Fox

Below are the first renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. One new drama has debuted thus far and is noticeably underperforming in the Adults 18-49 demographic when compared to returning shows. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column. 

9-1-1: '9-1-1' began season six with a sturdy 0.69 rating and was down by just 9% from its year-ago premiere. Outside of ABC's NFL game, the procedural drama beat out every program on the evening of September 19th, including NBC juggernaut 'The Voice'. Despite being the oldest drama in the current Fox roster, it remains the strongest of the pack. As a result, '9-1-1' is Certain to be Renewed.

Monarch: At face value, the 0.91 rating that 'Monarch' posted for its series debut looks fantastic. A number of this size should be enough for Fox to award it a multi-season renewal and greenlight a spinoff series. That is, until you pull back the curtain and realize it had a 2.8 lead-in from an NFL post-game show. Once 'Monarch' was stripped of that cushiony football boost, it eroded down to a measly 0.21 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic, a whopping 77% below its premiere from just 9 days prior. The country music drama retained just 60% of 'The Resident' and went lower than every episode of 'Our Kind of People', the series that occupied this timeslot last year and was canceled after just 12 episodes. Though anything is possible in a world where 'Welcome To Flatch' can score a renewal, it is highly unlikely that 'Monarch' will make it past season one, meaning it is Likely to be Canceled.

The Cleaning Lady: In its first season, 'The Cleaning Lady' performed just well enough to secure a second season but never felt like anything more than a passable player. Middling freshmen shows like that tend to deal with a sophomore slump and 'Cleaning Lady' was unable to buck that trend. The Elodie Yung vehicle returned with a new series low out the gate, posting a mediocre 0.35 rating and retaining just half of its '9-1-1' lead-in (0.69). This is clearly an unsatisfactory performance and puts the series in a shaky position. For now, this crime drama is Likely to be Renewed, but that may change if it slips much further from this semi-acceptable level.

The Resident: 'The Resident' opened its sixth season with the same 0.35 rating that 'The Cleaning Lady' garnered but looked a good bit better since it does not air after a powerhouse like '9-1-1'. However, that does not mean that this seasoned medical drama performed exceptionally well. As always, this series only looks as good as it does because the other dramas on the Fox network are doing worse than it. Only time will tell if the middle-of-the-road performance of 'The Resident' will be enough to warrant a seventh season renewal. Since it has not had a massive decline and appears stronger than the non-'9-1-1' offerings, it remains Likely to be Renewed...for now.

Poll of the Week
Will 'The Simpsons' be above or below a 1.1 rating for its season premiere?
Exactly 1.10
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What do you think of these predictions? As always, leave your thoughts in the comment section below.

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