Welcome to the second edition of CBS Renew/Cancel of the 2022-23 TV season! Since the last edition, returning comedies The Neighborhood and Bob Hearts Abishola premiered alongside returning dramas NCIS, NCIS: Hawai’i, FBI, FBI: International, and FBI: Most Wanted. Below are updated predictions, as well as each show’s change in rank from the previous edition when applicable. Any show listed in italics indicates a category change. In this edition, these are:
-NCIS: Hawai’i is downgraded from Certain Renew to Likely Renew
-Bob Hearts Abishola is downgraded from Likely Renew to Leans Renew
The Neighborhood
The Neighborhood premiered to a series low 0.50 A18-49 L+SD rating on Monday, yet was actually the highlight of CBS’s lineup that night. This could be a sign that we are in for yet another season of significant ratings declines across the board, as our standards for what a good rating is gets lower by the year. Given it had competition from an ABC broadcast of Monday Night Football, there’s a chance it shows more promise in the near future. It slips one spot in the rankings this week, with Ghosts now looking even healthier simply from the fact it hasn’t premiered, and as such didn’t have a chance to also hit a new series low yet.
NCIS: Hawai’i
NCIS: Hawai’i held well from NCIS’s rating, but its 0.40 season premiere rating was underwhelming nonetheless. The FBI franchise is looking unquestionably stronger than the NCIS franchise at this point, and it’s hard to predict Certain Renew for something that will almost certainly only go down from here. There’s still a much more likely chance than not this gets renewed until CBS can get some type of syndication deal for it, given that option may very well be alive for something with the NCIS name.
NCIS
Premiering at a 0.42 rating and down a whopping 42% from last season’s premiere, NCIS is not the juggernaut ratings hit on Monday nights that it used to be. It failed to rise from its Bob Hearts Abishola lead-in, a show certainly cheaper to produce. I find it hard to believe CBS outright cancels NCIS without announcing well in advance that it’s a final season, but the season premiere was not promising. Whether or not this is the final season for NCIS, the ratings indicate such a season may not be far away. For now, it stays in the Likely Renew category until we get a better picture of how the new dramas perform. The only reason it rises in the chart’s rankings this week is from Bob Hearts Abishola falling.
Bob Hearts Abishola
Bob Hearts Abishola gets downgraded to Leans Renew from its pre-season prediction of Likely Renew after its 0.43 season premiere rating out of The Neighborhood’s 0.50. It’s tough to get a read this early on in the season of how CBS plans to schedule comedy in the near future. If they plan to stick to only four spots on the fall schedule, Bob Hearts Abishola looks by far like the most vulnerable show unless Ghosts hits a sophomore slump. Given it is getting a time slot upgrade this season, while that’s a possibility it’s not all that probable. CBS may also see the 0.43 rating and wonder how the pair of NCIS shows would have done had something with better ratings aired in Bob Hearts Abishola’s time slot. Given CBS does not have the distribution rights to Bob Hearts Abishola, expect it to remain looking vulnerable for as long as it looks like arguably the weakest Monday show.
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