FOX Renew/Cancel Week 18: Final Predictions

 

Predictions for 05/06/23

Below are the final renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, Fox has opted to cancel drama '9-1-1' and sitcom 'Call Me Kat'. '9-1-1' has already found a new home on ABC and will be airing on that network for its 7th season.

9-1-1: In an unprecedented move, the Fox network Cancelled procedural drama '9-1-1' after a six-season run on the first of May. Once the average of football-inflated 'The Simpsons' falls a bit more, this will mean that Fox has flat-out canceled their highest-rated scripted series. This was an incorrect prediction for this column and adds fuel to the idea that Nielsen ratings matter less and less when it comes to these decisions. '9-1-1' was a series that seemed like a lock all-season long, but even the strongest show on the network is not safe when it is too expensive to keep around. '9-1-1' will air its seventh season on ABC, thus taking its strength in the Nielsen ratings with it. Fox was already in a dire state before but losing their best performer makes their chances of having a decent Fall 2023 even less likely. It is almost certain that whatever Fox decides to air in the same timeslot as ABC's '9-1-1' will be trampled by their former golden child. 

Call Me Kat: The Fox network has pulled the plug on 'Call Me Kat' after three seasons. The news came almost immediately after the series dropped to a new series low (0.15) for its finale on Thursday evening. This series was in the "Likely Cancellation" category from October to February but was upgraded after it initially improved when placed after 'Animal Control', thus making this an incorrect prediction. The full-season order it received made it seem like Fox was intent on keeping it around, but the timeslot downgrade from 9 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. was clearly a terrible sign. 'Call Me Kat' being Cancelled is not a total shock, but it definitely seemed to be on the safer side after Production Weekly reported that a fourth season was in development. Ultimately, this was a miscalculation. 

9-1-1: Lone Star: '9-1-1: Lone Star' was Renewed by Fox on the same day that they canceled parent series '9-1-1'. This serves as a correct prediction for this column since the series had been a "Certain Renewal" since the season began. Now that '9-1-1' is gone, 'Lone Star' is the closest thing Fox has to a solid scripted performer in the Nielsen ratings. Expect the series to remain one of the highest-rated on Fox during the upcoming television season.

Animal Control: Of the four shows that have yet to be renewed or canceled, 'Animal Control' is the only one that is Likely to be Renewed. This sitcom consistently remained at or above a 0.20 in the Adults 18-49 demographic this spring, a feat that neither 'Kat' nor 'Flatch' managed to accomplish. In addition, Futon Critic is reporting that reruns of 'Animal Control' will be airing on Thursday nights from late May to late June. Though Fox is a wildcard, it is very unlikely that they would be scheduling back-to-back encores of a show they intend to cancel. 'Animal Control' has a 75% chance of being renewed.

Welcome To Flatch: It feels redundant to go over all the reasons why 'Welcome To Flatch' is Likely to be Canceled, but it deserves to be repeated. Remove the NFL-inflated installment and its average falls from a 0.23 to a 0.19, tied for last-place with 'HouseBroken'. It was given a short order instead of a 22-episode package and ended its run with a new season low. And yet, that is still not enough to make this a certain cancellation on the Fox network. 'Flatch' has a 40% chance of being renewed. 

Fantasy Island: 'Fantasy Island' is an abysmal performer that can only manage ratings in the 0.14-0.20 range despite airing after a juggernaut like '9-1-1'. It is Certain to be Canceled and has just a 20% chance of being renewed. 

HouseBroken: 'HouseBroken' is Likely to be Canceled and has a 30% chance of being renewed. Ratings are lackluster and the scheduling has been erratic, but Fox may have lower standards for summer programming. It still sits comfortably in the red.

 

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FOX Renew/Cancel Week 17: Can ’Flatch’ Possibly Be Welcomed Back?

 

Predictions for 4/29/23

Photo Credit: FOX

Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, '9-1-1: Lone Star', Accused', 'Family Guy', and 'Bob's Burgers' have all declined to new lows. 

Welcome To Flatch: Fox's treatment of 'Welcome To Flatch' has truly been a sight to see this year. Though it wrapped up its season over two months ago, the network decided to air reruns of the series on both April 13th (0.12) and April the 20th (0.12). While these encores did not perform much worse than first-run episodes, it is very confusing why the network is deciding to air 'Flatch' repeats in a timeslot that still belongs to 'Call Me Kat'. 'Welcome To Flatch' is a disastrous performer in the Adults 18-49 demographic and was even given a smaller episode order this season when compared to season one's 14-installment package. Providing a sitcom with only 13 episodes during the sophomore year is never a good sign, especially since 'Kat' nabbed a full order of 22. Sitcoms traditionally receive a larger episode count in year two if they are meeting the network's expectations. Being capped at 13 spells doom in most cases. 'The Resident', a series that Fox recently canceled, also had a short, 13-episode order and ended its season around the same time as 'Flatch' did. On the other hand, this show is getting its reruns promoted in commercials and went from being a 9:30 p.m. afterthought to a 9 p.m. centerpiece. 'Flatch' is Likely to be Canceled due to the data provided, but Fox clearly sees something in it that may not be visible to the naked eye. A renewal is not out of the question here, even if it does seem to be on the wrong side of the bubble. 

Accused: 'Accused' may have been Renewed for a second season but the anthology drama only continues to sink further into the abyss. The 0.18 rating it posted on April the 25th was 50% below its '9-1-1: Lone Star' lead-in (0.36) and made it the lowest-rated, non-CW show of the night. And even the CW's lineup (0.12/0.11) was not too far behind 'Accused' on that particular evening. 'Accused' is set to return for the 2023-24 television season, but its future beyond that is very uncertain. Going from a 0.45 rating to a 0.18 in a matter of three months is rejection of insane proportions. 

Bob's Burgers: While there is no reason to worry about the fate of 'Bob's Burgers', its recent performance in the Adults 18-49 demographic leaves much to be desired. 'Bob's' was granted a special 8 p.m. showing on April 16th and ended up plummeting to a new series low (0.21). While that can be explained away a bit, what cannot be excused is the fact that the series dropped from its 'Great North' lead-in (0.25) by two-hundredths on April 23rd. The 0.23 that 'Bob's' garnered that evening made it the lowest-rated show in the animation lineup. 'Bob's' often outrated 'The Simpsons' in years past, so the fact that it is losing to a weak link like 'The Great North' is beyond appalling. This animated comedy has already been Renewed for two additional seasons, but its value to the network appears to be fading.

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FOX Renew/Cancel Week 16: ’HouseBroken’ Needs A New Home

 

Predictions for 4/15/23

Photo Credit: FOX

Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, Fox has renewed two programs and canceled one. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column. 

HouseBroken: The scheduling of 'HouseBroken' has been an interesting saga to watch unfold. As mentioned in an earlier column, the series spent summer 2021 hovering around the 0.23-0.29 range in the Adults 18-49 demographic. After that feeble run, it awkwardly returned in December 2022 with ratings that fell into a very similar range (0.26/0.21). The series was yet again put on hiatus after that one-off showing but reemerged in late March with a stint in the 9:30 p.m. timeslot. The cartoon struggled for its first episode back (0.17) and managed to be the lowest-rated show on Fox on a night where everything else was a rerun. If that weren't bad enough, the series posted a terrifyingly poor 0.12 rating just a week later and lost three-hundredths from the repeat of 'Bob's Burgers' that led into it. 

This animated comedy is now the lowest-rated on the Fox network and is once more Likely to be Canceled. Fox has tossed this series all over the schedule during different periods of the year and has now stuffed it behind random reruns. They clearly have buyer's remorse when it comes to this pickup and are probably more interested in nurturing upcoming animated sitcoms like 'Krapopolis' and Grimsburg' (two cartoons that have been renewed for additional seasons before airing a single episode). 'HouseBroken' will be taking another break but is set to return on May 14th for a proper summer run, one that will probably be its last on the Fox network.

Alert: Fox Renewed freshman drama 'Alert' for a second season on March 23, 2023. This serves as a correct prediction for this column. Though the drama began in rough shape, it was upgraded to a likely renewal in early February when it showed stability and growth in its undesirable timeslot. If given a stronger lead-in next season, it is definitely possible that 'Alert' will show some improvement in the Adults 18-49 demographic. 

Accused: 'Accused' was Renewed for a second season on the same day as 'Alert'. This marks another correct prediction for this column. 'Accused' has been a "Likely Renewal" since it entered the chart in January after posting a surprisingly healthy 0.45 rating for its timeslot premiere. The anthology drama has since deteriorated and recently fell to a pitiful 0.21. Nonetheless, this renewal comes as no surprise since Fox provided this series with a monster NFL lead-in for its debut and positioned it right after the high-rated '9-1-1: Lone Star'. 

The Resident: 'The Resident' was officially Cancelled by the Fox network after a six-season run on April 6, 2023. This series clearly didn't deserve a cancellation based on 18-49 ratings alone, but it was getting up there in age and the middling ratings were simply not enough to warrant contract renegotiations. This serves as another correct prediction for this column. The long-running drama has been likely to be canceled in the chart since January. 

Animal Control: On April 6, 'Animal Control' (0.29) climbed to its highest rating since early March but then crashed to a new series low the following week (0.20). 'Animal Control' is Likely to be Renewed but its performance seems completely dependent on how 'Next Level Chef' performs. The sitcom falls and rises with 'Chef' and it is unclear how it would perform without it. Despite that, the semi-decent ratings and strong showing on streaming makes it the live-action comedy that is the safest bet to return.

Fantasy Island: 'Fantasy Island' returned from a month-long hiatus and fell to a pathetic new series low (0.14). This series is Certain to be Canceled and strengthening a case against it with these dismal showings.

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FOX Renew/Cancel Week 15: It’s Time To Evacuate ’Fantasy Island’

 

Predictions for 03/11/23

Photo Credit: FOX

Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, 'The Simpsons', 'The Great North', 'Bob's Burgers', 'Family Guy', 'Animal Control', and '9-1-1: Lone Star' have all posted new lows. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column. 

Fantasy Island: During the months of January and February, 'Fantasy Island' regularly hovered around a 0.2 18-49 rating in its 8 o'clock timeslot on Monday evenings. Though it did work its way up from a ghastly 0.17 premiere to a less terrible 0.24, it continues to reside near the bottom of the Fox totem pole. On March 6, the sophomore drama was tossed into the 9PM timeslot in order to make room for the return of '9-1-1'. Airing behind the strongest show on the network is nothing to take for granted and 'Fantasy Island' could have easily taken this opportunity to soar to a new high. Instead, the series dipped by a hundredth to a measly 0.23 rating, retaining less than 40% of '9-1-1' (0.63). Seemingly as a response to this lackluster showing, the episode that was originally meant to air on March 13 was removed in order to make room for a rerun of 'Farmer Wants a Wife'. Being yanked off the schedule for an encore of a show that can best be described as "midseason reality filler" is essentially the kiss of death. 'Fantasy Island' has been likely to be canceled for quite some time but this abrupt preemption means that it is now Certain to be Canceled. 

Animal Control: Episode four of 'Animal Control' ended up being the lowest-rated one thus far. The sitcom slipped by 21% on a week-to-week basis and could only scrape together a 0.23 rating this time around. This series is still a better option than 'Welcome To Flatch' and performs about as well as the cartoons in the Sunday animation block but neither of those bars are very high ones to clear. 'Animal Control' is still Likely to be Renewed but needs to stop its slide soon to avoid a downgrade. 

Accused: Even though '9-1-1: Lone Star' fell to a new low, 'Accused' (0.28) was able to grow by about 22% to its strongest showing in three weeks. The anthology drama appears to be strengthening its case for renewal and has now made it clear that it is not dependent on its lead-in. 'Accused' is Likely to be Renewed and looks a good bit healthier than it did in late February. 

9-1-1: '9-1-1' came back from a break that lasted more than three months and garnered a remarkable 0.63 rating for its return. The procedural juggernaut came within striking distance of 'The Voice' (0.69) and was just 9% below its Fall finale from November 2022. '9-1-1' is Certain to be Renewed and just reaffirmed that it is a better player than just about anything else on the Fox network.

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FOX Renew/Cancel Week 14: ’9-1-1: Lone Star’ Is Lonely At The Top

Predictions for 03/04/23

Photo Credit: FOX

Below are the latest renew/cancel predictions for the Fox network in the 2022-23 television season. The numbers listed in the table mark the Nielsen rating low, average, and high for each respective program in the Adults 18-49 demographic. The "Y2Y (year-to-year) Change" column denotes how much the series has risen or fallen when compared to its average from the previous season. Since the last update, 'Bob's Burgers', 'Family Guy', and 'Accused' have all fallen to new series lows. As always, only scripted programming will be taken into account in this column. 

9-1-1: Lone Star: Once 'Accused' chips away at its average enough, '9-1-1: Lone Star' will end up being the third highest-rated program on the Fox network (only behind the original '9-1-1' and an artificially-inflated 'Simpsons'). 'Lone Star' is one of the only scripted shows on Fox that can comfortably be classified as a strong performer and is still Certain To Be Renewed as a result. Ratings above a 0.4 are hard to come by on this network and 'Lone Star' consistently exceeds that benchmark. Expect to see this drama around for a long time to come. 

Animal Control: In the past two weeks, 'Animal Control' has proven itself to be a passable player for Fox. The 0.31 it garnered on premiere night was a fine start, but it could have easily fallen off a cliff from there. Instead, the Joel McHale sitcom dipped by a light 16% during its second broadcast (0.26) and then bounced back a bit the following week (0.29). Though its retention of 'Next Level Chef' is no longer as strong as it was in week one, it has clearly held up quite well given where it started. In terms of delayed viewing, Variety reports that 'Animal Control' had the most-streamed debut for a Fox comedy in the network's history. Because its Adults 18-49 ratings are a noticeable step above 'Welcome To Flatch' and it is surpassing expectations in the streaming department, 'Animal Control' continues to be Likely to be Renewed. This series is burning just bright enough to ensure that it will return for a second season.

Alert: 'Alert' closed out season one with a disappointing 0.24 rating in the Adults 18-49 demographic but remains Likely to be Renewed despite its lackluster performance. Though this number may not be very solid, it is a hundredth higher than the latest episode of 'Accused', a series that airs directly after '9-1-1: Lone Star'. 'Alert' does not have the luxury of airing after one of Fox's highest-rated dramas and yet still managed to post a better rating than its freshman counterpart this week. This is a show that consistently built on its meager 'Fantasy Island' lead-in and seems to have the potential to improve if given a better timeslot to air in. Next season would be the perfect time to stick 'Alert' behind one of the '9-1-1' shows in order to see if it can grow an audience when given more support.

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