The 2022-23 season has begun, which means it's time for a new season of renew/cancels to begin. This week, a trio of smash hit NBC dramas returned, while a new drama also premiere. Keep reading for my initial predictions!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
Quantum Leap (0.47)
Likely Renewal:
N/A
Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.69)
Chicago Med (0.70)
Chicago PD (0.67)
Already Canceled/Final Season:
New Amsterdam
Coming Soon:
American Auto
The Blacklist
Grand Crew
Found
La Brea
Law & Order
Law & Order: Organized Crime
Law & Order: SVU
Lopez vs. Lopez
Night Court
Saturday Night Live
Young Rock
Quantum Leap: The Monday at 10 slot has not exactly been synonymous with success in recent years, even if its is positioned behind one of NBC's top shows, The Voice. In the past five seasons, only Manifest has been renewed and returned two the slot, with Timeless, Taken and Good Girls receiving renewals and being shuffled to elsewhere on the schedule due to middling ratings. Good Girls is the only show of those to receive more than three seasons, and none of them rated all that well even after their renewals. Last season's Ordinary Joe was a complete disaster. All of this is to say that NBC has had trouble here in the past. For all we know, those troubles could easily continue this season, as we're just one week into the season. However, Quantum Leap is off to a pretty good start, with a 0.47 debut after a 0.67 from The Voice. That's not a massive success, but it's no failure either - the expected league average for the season is around a 0.4, and 10 PM usually rates quite a bit below the league average at-large. It certainly has room to fall, though probably not all that much, particular with rumors of a potential cut of NBC's 10 PM programming hour, as NBC six Dick Wolf dramas that they'd likely pick over it. With so many questions looming, it's hard to be too sure, but it's off to a promising-enough start, and it LEANS RENEWAL.
Chicago Fire: TV's #2 drama last season, Chicago Fire remained a top scripted performer when it returned last night, but it still debuted near the low end of its ratings, down a tenth from its finale and drawing a rating that puts it above only one other episode in its run. That's not to say that it's in any danger - a 0.69 is still fantastic in this day and age, and it's not even that large of a drop from last season. While the show is getting older, its fellow Dick Wolf shows suggest that it may still have upwards of ten seasons left. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
Chicago Med: It was a mild surprise that Chicago Med rated ahead of Chicago Fire in its premiere, as it tended to trail Fire a bit last season and was the lowest-rated Chicago premiere last season. As of now, it's the #1 drama of this very young season, and the #3 show overall. There are occasionally concerns that, as a show that often looks the weakest of the Chicago lineup and the one with the least syndication potential, it could be canceled one day to make room for a new Chicago series. However, there doesn't seem to be any real reason to worry about the show, as its ratings remain strong (much better than Chicago Justice when it was canceled in a shocker). As of now, even with the rumors circulating about an NBC programming cut, three's no reason to see it as anything besides a CERTAIN RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!
