NBC Renew/Cancel Week 2: La Brea Avoids Slipping Down a Sinkhole in Season Two Premiere

Just two weeks into the season, NBC has mostly completed their fall premieres, with only SNL and two shows set to premiere, with those latter shows not coming until November. This week, we discuss recent premieres La Brea and Law & Order: SVU. Keep reading to see my initial predictions for them!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
Quantum Leap (0.40)

Likely Renewal:
La Brea (0.49)
Law & Order (0.60)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.62)

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire (0.69, 0.68-0.69)
Chicago Med (0.68, 0.66-0.70)
Chicago PD (0.67, 0.66-0.67)
Law & Order: SVU (0.69)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
New Amsterdam

Coming Soon:
American Auto
The Blacklist
Grand Crew
Lopez vs. Lopez
Night Court
Saturday Night Live
Young Rock 

La Brea: One of the biggest questions heading into the season was whether NBC's sophomore sci-fi success story La Brea would be able to keep its head above water after an extended (by broadcast standards) hiatus following its short first season. While it was a solid performer during season one, there remained concern about whether it was actually a legitimate hit or just a flash in the pan (and a large decline behind a mid-season Voice recap sow lent credibility to that concern). In its second season, La Brea returned to a 0.49 in the 18-49 demo, avoiding a new series low and coming in only slightly below its first season finale (0.51), actually slipping less than its lead-in did. A sophomore slump remains a possibility, but isn't looking all that likely at this point. The show is likely more expensive than the average broadcast show, due to its special effects and filming location, but the budget can be justified if it remains an above-average player as it presently is. NBC cutting the 10 PM hour is the only real reason at the moment to believe it could find itself in danger, but even then, NBC can likely find a place for it on their schedule. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Law & Order: SVU: Despite its age, there doesn't seem to be any end in sight for TV's longest-running drama. It found itself as the #2 drama of premiere week, behind only Chicago Med (and tied with Chicago Fire and 9-1-1). While there was increased promotion for the series due to the three-hour crossover event with its other Law & Orders, those other shows were probably helped far more than SVU was by that crossover. That 0.69 is an extremely impressive bow for any show, but is especially strong for a show that premiered to a 0.59 just two seasons ago. With ratings so strong and consistent, a cancellation is out of the question, and star Mariska Hargitay seems to have no desire to leave the show in the meantime. All signs point to SVU becoming the first primetime drama, and live-action series, to reach a 25th season in American television history. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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