NBC Renew/Cancel Week 0: Pre-Season Predictions for La Brea, The Blacklist, Young Rock, SVU, One Chicago and More!

The 2022-23 TV season is officially here, and it's time to make my pre-season predictions for NBC's scripted lineup. The Peacock Network will be airing multiple new series this season, while featuring the returns of the fan-favorite Chicago lineup and the new Law & Order lineup. Keep reading for all of my pre-season calls:

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
The Blacklist
Grand Crew
Young Rock

Leans Renewal:
American Auto
La Brea

Likely Renewal:
Law & Order
Law & Order: Organized Crime

Certain Renewal:
Chicago Fire
Chicago Med
Chicago PD
Law & Order: SVU
Saturday Night Live

Already Canceled/Final Season:
New Amsterdam

New Series:
Lopez vs. Lopez
Night Court
Quantum Leap

American Auto: Its ratings were unspectacular in its first season, so a second-season cancellation (a la Kenan and Mr. Mayor) would not come as a terrible shock. However, as of now, I do feel as if the show is more likely to receive a third season than not, as it was higher-rated than Grand Crew, and will most likely again receive better treatment than that show this season. NBC could end up cancelling both of last season's new comedies, as they clearly need neither of them, but I'd bet against it as of now. It LEANS RENEWAL.

The Blacklist: Everything has to end eventually, and I do expect that to be the case this season for the midseason-bound Blacklist. It's a milestone tenth season for the crime drama, which feels like an appropriate time to wrap it up. Ratings for the show are extremely low, and the show has felt like it could go either way for the past few seasons now. Being left off the fall schedule in favor of a fall comedy night is an indicator that the show is a relatively low priority for NBC, and they may already be seeking replacements for it. Obviously, much time remains before a final decision has to be announced, and NBC could opt to keep it around as a midseason program if the creative team wants to continue. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Chicago Fire, Chicago Med, and Chicago PD: These three are all in identical positions, as three shows with almost identical ratings, airing in the same block. They're a package deal, and a huge asset for NBC. Even with some high-profile cast exits, ratings will likely be as solid as ever for this lineup, the cornerstone of NBC's lineup. All three are CERTAIN RENEWALS.

Grand Crew: It scored a surprise renewal last season, and was the second-lowest-rated show on NBC to be renewed, after The Blacklist. Its 0.31 average was identical to that of Kenan, which was canceled. I don't expect it to improve its position in its second season, wherever that may air. Kenan and Mr. Mayor were both canceled after sizable sophomore declines after already-middling debut seasons. I expect a similar scenario for Grand Crew. While NBC tends to give second chances to freshman comedies in recent seasons, they've been pickier with sophomore comedies, and I see little reason to expect Grand Crew to turn things around. It LEANS RENEWAL. 

La Brea: Last season, La Brea managed to subvert expectations and rate as TV's #1 new show (aside from the NFL-inflated episodes of Next Level Chef) of last season, despite sci-fi shows' recent ratings struggles on broadcast. It did show some signs of ratings instability, with ratings fluctuating with its lead-in. That is a sign to me that it may not have an audience of its own, and could see some large drops this season. Obviously, with ratings as solid as it had last season, I will give it the benefit of the doubt and expect a renewal, but I can't be too certain about it until we see how it returns. It's been gone a while, and that usually lends itself to bigger declines from season-to-season. It LEANS RENEWAL for now.

Law & Order: Last season, NBC revived its long-running legal drama over ten years after its abrupt cancellation. Featuring a largely new cast, joined by Sam Waterston, Law & Order was unable to live up to the hype, or the ratings of its iconic SVU spinoff, averaging a middling 0.49 at the start of NBC's spring Thursday nights, with multiple 0.4s at the tail-end of the short season. That's a worrying sign for what was supposed to be a marquee series for the network. It wasn't enough to get it canceled, and staying steady at that rating won't get it canceled this season either, but it's still clearly the weakest Law & order show. I expect NBC to keep this line-up in-tact for a while, but I'm not fully certain that they'll go through the trouble of renewing it if it remains a below-average performer, especially with NBC exploring slashing the 10 PM programming hour. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL 

Law & Order: Organized Crime: Last season, Organized Crime proved that while it wasn't as strong as SVU, it was still a respectable performer. Its year-to-year trends were noticeable, as it faced comparisons to the massive opening of its first season, but the raw ratings were very strong for a 10 PM show, and it rated ahead of Law & Order at 8 PM. Still, I am mildly cautious about this season, just due to the possibility that it could see another season of above-average declines ahead of a NBC potentially cutting the 10 PM hour. The odds of it being canceled are extremely low, but I'm trying to be cautious, and there is a small path. It's a (very) LIKELY RENEWAL 

Law & Order: SVU: The longest-running broadcast drama, coming off a three-season renewal, is the centerpiece of the Law & Order block. SVU is a clear hit for NBC, rating as their #5 drama last season behind This Is Us (which has ended) and the Chicagos. It's a show that will clearly go on for as long as Mariska Hargitay desires, and she has shown no signs of wanting to stop. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Saturday Night Live: A TV institution that continues to rate as one of the highest-rated shows on all of television. An obvious CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Young Rock: This is my boldest prediction, but I am betting on a Young Rock cancellation this season. It's moving to Fridays, where it is bound to drop even further after last season's 37% drop. It hit multiple 0.3s last season, and that will probably be its ceiling this season, airing at 8:30 behind Lopez vs. Lopez, as a wrestling-centered show airing against WWE SmackDown. Maybe NBC does have a sincerely-held belief that it can carve out a niche with Friday night comedy, but it seems more that Rock was shoved to Fridays because they had nowhere else to air it. It can't be all that cheap with Dwayne Johnson headlining its cast, and it doesn't seem to be all that strong on streaming. It's not DOA, but it certainly looks more endangered than it did last season, when it appeared to still be a top priority comedy for NBC. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

Though they haven't aired any episodes before, and therefore won't get official pre-season predictions from me, I am guessing that new shows Lopez vs. Lopez and Night Court will be renewed, while Quantum Leap and Found will both be canceled.

What do you think of my pre-season predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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