ABC Renew/Cancel Week 1: Abbott Elementary Aces Another Test

ABC has begun its new TV season, with the returns of their Wednesday lineup, including Emmy-winning hit comedy Abbott Elementary, veteran The Goldbergs, and third-season drama Big Sky. Keep reading for my initial predictions for all five Wednesday shows, plus The Rookie, in the year's first renew/cancel!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky (0.26)
The Goldbergs (0.44)
Home Economics (0.38)

Likely Renewal:
The Conners (0.53)
The Rookie (0.3*)

Certain Renewal:
Abbott Elementary (0.57)

Coming Soon:
Alaska Daily
The Company You Keep
The Good Doctor
Grey's Anatomy
A Million Little Things
Not Dead Yet
The Rookie
The Rookie: Feds
Station 19
Will Trent
The Wonder Years

Abbott Elementary: The acclaimed series, which won two Emmy Awards this year in a rare feat for a broadcast series, returned for its second season last week, and rated as the week's #1 comedy (though with the caveat that last year's #1 comedy, Young Sheldon, did not air) and was ABC's #2 entertainment series for the week, behind the finale of The Bachelorette. It was also rock steady from its season one finale, which has unfortunately been a rare site on broadcast. Its strong ratings performance, combined with its excellent streaming performance, makes it easily the safest show on ABC, and I'd even go so far as to guess that it will be the last show standing of this crop of scripted shows. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Home Economics: After drawing dismal ratings across its second season, and seemingly barely getting a third season, Home Economics returned in decent shape last week, with a 0.38 premiere that was only 7% below its season two debut. Of course, that's still the weakest of any ABC comedy, but it's a noted improvement from its other 2022 episodes, as it only went above that number once before this year. If ABC was content with Home Economics when it was rating below a 0.30, I doubt they're upset with this premiere rating. Its retention from Abbott Elementary is far from ideal, but the same could have been said about its retention from The Conners. All in all, it's a decent premiere for the show, higher than I expected, and enough to appear headed towards renewal as of now. What level the show ultimately settles at is going to be the ultimate decider. It LEANS RENEWAL.

Big Sky: It's hard to ever guess what a network will do with a show that is clearly being kept alive for reasons besides same-day ratings. While Big Sky was once a legitimate success story, it faded fast and has been on life support for a while now. Its ratings behind Grey's Anatomy were terrible last season, and it's no surprise that it remained a disaster behind the lower-rated Home Economics on Wednesday. It received one of ABC's heaviest promotional pushes, with a big cast reshuffling that included Reba McEntire and Jensen Ackles, and none of it was able to move the needle. Perhaps it's a big streaming performer, which is one theory as to its renewal last season, but without knowing that for sure, it's hard to say what ABC will do with it. It LEANS RENEWAL as of now, though things could very easily change.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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