ABC Renew/Cancel Week 0: Pre-Season Predictions for The Goldbergs, Big Sky, Abbott Elementary, The Rookie and More!

With Summer nearly at its close, and the new season just about here, it's time to make some pre-season predictions for ABC's crop of shows. Keep reading for my initial thoughts on the lineup, ahead of next week's debut.

Certain Cancellation:
A Million Little Things

Likely Cancellation:

Leans Cancellation:
Home Economics
The Wonder Years

Leans Renewal:
Big Sky
The Goldbergs

Likely Renewal:
The Conners
The Good Doctor
Grey's Anatomy
The Rookie

Certain Renewal:
Abbott Elementary
Station 19

New Series:
Alaska Daily
The Company You Keep
Not Dead Yet
The Rookie: Feds
Will Trent

Abbott Elementary: Not only is Abbott Elementary the network's #1 comedy, it's also a much-buzzed-about series online that performs extremely well on streaming, as well as being a rare acclaimed broadcast series that has scored Emmy nominations for ABC. Even if it underperforms in its new time slot (which wouldn't be a shock, given that Wednesday are a wasteland for ABC nowadays), it's not getting canceled. It starts as a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

Big Sky: It shouldn't have been renewed last season, given its ratings. Why do I think it'll be renewed this season? Well, ABC can't cancel everything, and I think they'll side with renewing this one over renewing midseason dramas that probably won't do any better. I could still see a scenario in which Big Sky is canceled, given its weak lead-in and even weaker season two ratings, but given how much it's been promoted by ABC this summer, I don't think that's terribly likely. It LEANS RENEWAL.

The Conners: Having been moved to 8 PM after a few seasons of airing at 9 PM, The Conners has the opportunity to stabilize next season after years of hearty declines, as it will now gain a local lead-in that has helped many 8 PM shows in recent seasons. Getting the 8 PM slot over The Goldbergs (the slot's longtime occupant) certainly seems to indicate that it's a bigger priority than that show, and with it being their #2 comedy, it's hard to imagine it being canceled this year, short of an even larger comedy cut than CBS had last season. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

The Goldbergs: Speaking of The Goldbergs, the 1980something-set comedy is heading into a rebooted tenth season, and the end certainly has to be approaching... right? With stars Jeff Garlin and George Segal now off the show for extremely different reasons and a new 8:30 time slot, the show is in a real period of change, and it's hard to say how its audience will react to those changes. While the show's tenth season renewal also cleared the way for an eleventh season, as Wendi McLendon-Covey's new contact had an option for an additional year. An underperformance this season could lead to the downfall of this expensive, unowned show, but as of now, it look like a mild favorite for renewal. It LEANS RENEWAL.

The Good Doctor: A sixth season is always a risky season for any show to enter, as six seasons tends to be the length of contracts for a show's principal season one cast. The Good Doctor, ABC's top-performing 10 PM drama, is entering its sixth season next year. As it is only a co-production, ABC makes less money on the show than one they fully own, which may cause the show to run into some problems down the line. Still, ABC will likely do whatever it can to renew the show, given that it remains a top-performing 10 PM show for them. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Grey's Anatomy: Every year in recent memory, there are concerns that the face of Grey's, Ellen Pompeo, may walk out on the show and cause it to end. As of now, that's not happened, and it seems unlikely that she will do that after this season, when she is being given an extensive amount of time off to pursue a side project. Doubts will remain until she re-signs for season 20, but it is a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Home Economics: The third season order of Home Economics is said to be for only thirteen episodes, which is highly unusual for a fall show that had a 22-episode second season. While a backorder may be granted down the line, not having one to start with is a troubling sign for the show's future. Its ratings were pretty awful in season two, so ABC having some doubts about it is not exactly unjustified. With no new comedies on the fall schedule and Home Economics being the lowest-rated half-hour on the lineup, it seems like a pretty clear cut if ABC needed to make room for new series on next year's schedule. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

A Million Little Things: The end of A Million Little Things is all but confirmed. The show's creator had a five-season plan in mind, and let's just say that the show's ratings are not likely to cause ABC to ask him to reconsider those plans. It's been reported that the show is nearing its end, with unofficial reports saying that season five is the end. Predicting this is not rocket science. It's a CERTAIN "CANCELLATION."

The Rookie: While it returned in a weakened state last season, The Rookie eventually trended upwards and rated pretty well behind American Idol. Its 0.36 average isn't terribly impressive, but it's somehow enough to make it ABC's #2 10 PM series, and it rates towards the middle of the broadcast drama pack overall. With a spinoff recently ordered, it seems to be a profitable venture for ABC, and a cancellation this season would be a surprise. It's a LIKELY RENEWAL.

Station 19: While it's weakened a bit in recent years, Station 19 remains a strong performer for ABC, and is the network's #2 drama, rating just a single hundredth behind Grey's Anatomy. Unlike Grey's Anatomy, its stars have not repeatedly expressed interest in leaving the show. Barring an unexpected ratings collapse, Station 19 won't be in jeopardy this season. It's a CERTAIN RENEWAL.

The Wonder Years: Why ABC renewed this show last season, I do not know, as it didn't rate well at all and has now been shifted to midseason. I have my doubts that a show with such weak ratings will be able to perform at all respectably after such a long break. The Wonder Years seems to be headed on the same trajectory as Mixed-ish, a fall series which rated poorly and was shifted to midseason for its second season. That show only lasted two seasons, having failed its second chance. I don't expect The Wonder Years to have a fate much different. It LEANS CANCELLATION.

New shows: Though I won't give them official pre-premiere predictions, I do think ABC's crop of new shows is worth mentioning.  At this moment, I would bet that that Alaska Daily, Avalon and The Rookie: Feds will be renewed, while The Company You Keep, Not Dead Yet and Will Trent will be canceled.

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments and vote in the poll of the week!

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