NBC Renew/Cancel: Great News is Likely to be Canceled + Emerald City Canceled

Predictions for 5/5/17

Hello everyone, welcome to the latest NBC Renew/Cancel post of the season. We'll be hearing news about the fates of each and every show by May 12th at the latest so these will be the final predictions for me. Luke will be returning to give his final thoughts. First off, here is the table.

Key

Show Title (Average adults 18-49 rating/Most recent rating)

Canceled/Ended

Grimm (0.8/0.9)
Emerald City (0.7/0.7)

It was announced yesterday that Emerald City had been canceled after just one season. This was expected. It was the second lowest-rated show on the network and fell below both Grimm and Dateline on Friday nights. This was a correct prediction as Emerald City has been in the "Certain Cancellation" column for a while.

Grimm ended a while back and had decent ratings for a Friday drama in its sixth season.

Certain Cancellation

Powerless (0.7/0.6)
Timeless (1.1/0.9)

Powerless: The comedy was pulled off the schedule in favor of Superstore repeats and is the lowest-rated show on the network. It's essentially already canceled, but I'll keep it here until there's anything official.

Timeless: This went as low as a 0.6 in the 18-49 ratings and typically lost a good bit of its Voice lead-in when it aired after it.There's very little chance that the drama is coming back.

Likely Cancellation

The Blacklist: Redemption (0.8/0.7)
Blindspot (1.1/0.9)
Trial & Error (0.9/0.7)
Great News (0.9/0.6)
Taken (1.0/0.8)

Taken: The series finished its first season on Monday with just a 0.8, that's just half of its 1.6 start. It also lost over 50% of its Voice lead-in on several instances. So, why has it been upgraded from certain cancellation to likely cancellation? Sources have reported that the series is very cheap to produce and has done well internationally. I don't think that will be enough to save it since ratings were so dismal, but, taking those factors into account, it's a little less dead. Nevertheless, I am still predicting a cancellation.

The Blacklist: Redemption: The ratings for Redemption were anemic, even when it had a 1.7 lead-in, the series could only muster a 1.0 in the 18-49 ratings. There is a small chance that it could be renewed alongside The Blacklist, other than that, it would be a certain cancellation.

Great News: After premiering decently in its first week, Great News averaged a meager 0.7 in its second week, that's less than half of its Voice lead-in. The four-tenth drop from the premiere isn't great news for Great News, even Trial & Error only went as low as a 0.8 average when it aired after The Voice. If NBC wants one more returning comedy, they'll most likely renew Trial & Error, Great News has very little chance of coming back. I'm keeping it in the likely category because there's a small chance that it could rebound next week, but I highly doubt it'll return.

Trial & Error: It has been reported that the head of NBC is a big fan of the series. Still, it managed just a 0.9 average and fell as low as a 0.6 for a Thursday airing. But, with Great News doing worse, it's possible that they decide to keep this one since they have only two returning comedies. I don't think Trial & Error is coming back, but it is definitely in a better position than most of the shows in this category.

Blindspot: If we weren't so close to the end of the season, Blindspot would be a tossup, but I'm keeping things out of that category since a decision will be made very soon. Blindspot is down over 40% from last year and hit a couple 0.8s in the winter. But, it has managed to cling to 0.9s very recently, making a case for renewal. That's still very weak and significantly below what SVU and Chicago PD are doing. Out of all the shows in this category, Blindspot is probably the least dead out of the shows in this category, but I don't see NBC keeping it, especially since it'll be a long way to syndication with these low ratings.

Tossup

None

Likely Renewal

The Blacklist (1.0/0.8)
Chicago Justice (1.1/1.1)

The Blacklist: Despite not doing better than its spinoff in recent episodes, the series will be able to make money since it has enough episodes for a syndication deal. It's also doing around the same as Shades of Blue, and that show has already been renewed. The Blacklist isn't a lock, but it's very likely to return.

Chicago Justice: The series was up another tenth to a 1.1 last Sunday. That's the show's highest rating since March 12th. There have been talks that one of the Dick Wolf shows may not be coming back, if that were to be true, Justice would most likely be on its way out. Still, Chicago Justice has done well on Sundays and ratings have risen in the past few weeks. This show is most likely returning.

Certain Renewal

Chicago Fire (1.6/1.2)
Chicago Med (1.2/1.1)
Chicago P.D. (1.4/1.2)
Law & Order: SVU (1.4/1.0)

Chicago Fire, Chicago P.D., and SVU are three of the highest-rated shows on the network, they rank #2, 3, and 4 respectively. Chicago Med isn't as strong, but is still a respectable performer and is the highest-rated show on their Thursday line-up. These four shows are guaranteed to come back.

Renewed