On Wednesdays, I am taking a look at the major Emmy categories before nominations are revealed in July. Here's a look at the Supporting Actor and Actress in a Limited Series/TV Movie categories! I always find the Limited Series races interesting because it's a new slate of nominees every single year. It's much more like the Oscars or Tonys than the Comedy and Drama categories. But I think it's widely agreed that this year was not the strongest year for Limited Series. As streamers have started to pivot back towards desiring long-term, ongoing series (thanks to The Pitt among others) and as they have cut back on spending, the star-driven limited series has been less of an appealing option for the various platforms. But there are still some noteworthy performances.
SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
Beef cleaned up in the Limited Series category three years ago and is back with a second installment that hasn't been quite as much of a sensation but still seems like to produce some competitive nominees. Perhaps the most acclaimed performance came from Charles Melton, who is really a co-lead but competing in the Supporting category. I think most or all of the main Beef stars will get in but Melton may be the most competitive to actually win.
It has not yet been revealed how the Half Man actors will submit as really they could all be considered lead in terms of screentime but what seems most likely right now is that Richard Gadd goes Lead and Jamie Bell, Stuart Campbell and Mitchell Robertson all go Supporting. It makes it hard to predict but I'm just putting Bell in for now. If Bell goes Lead with Gadd then I could see the chances improving for Campbell and Robertson though they wouldn't be as strong as Bell. Speaking of HBO limited series, DTF St. Louis decided to run both Jason Bateman and David Harbour in Supporting and both have a decent chance to get in. Harbour had the more well-received performance but Bateman has always been an Emmy magnet. Richard Jenkins could also be in the mix but I don't see DTF landing three actors in this category.
A theme of this year's Limited Series races seems to be well-liked actors in shows that received a mixed response. Leading the charge on that front is Jonathan Banks in The Beast in Me. Banks has six career Emmy nominations and could get a seventh despite the very mixed response to Beast though it was well-watched. Another actor in that boat is Troy Kotsur for Black Rabbit. Kotsur is an Oscar winner but again, the show had a mixed reception. It could also apply to Jake Lacy for All Her Fault. Lacy received a nod for the first season of The White Lotus but in addition to a mixed reception, Peacock struggles to get nominations which is another strike against Lacy. There seems to be a lot of prognosticating that Love Story will do quite well in nominations but I am less sure. I think it will get some but I have a hard time believing it's going to be a massive player. So I'm on the fence about Alessandro Nivola for his performance as Calvin Klein. I don't think he's as much as a shoo-in as others do.
There's always the question of how well the well-watched but less well-reviewed Netflix shows will do because Monster: The Ed Gein Story was very widely seen, maybe more than any of the other shows in this category (always hard to know for sure in the wild world of streaming ratings). But it was pretty savaged by critics. So will Tom Hollander get in? It's hard to tell but the first two seasons of Monster were not that well received by critics either and still pulled in a fair number of nominations. Meanwhile, Death by Lightning didn't seem to pull in a huge audience by Netflix standards but was much better received so we'll see what that means for Nick Offerman, Bradley Whitford and Shea Whigham, who all received strong notices.
This is a very hard category to predict so it's possible a dark horse could get in. Dark horses include Mark Ruffalo for Hal & Harper, Michael Pena for All Her Fault, Sterling K. Brown for Washington Black, Corey Stoll for Imperfect Women and the Lord of the Flies kids: David McKenna, Lox Pratt and Ike Talbut among others. There are no TV Movie actors who can threaten to get into this category.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Charles Melton, Beef
2. Jamie Bell, Half Man
3. David Harbour, DTF St. Louis
4. Jason Bateman, DTF St. Louis
5. Jonathan Banks, The Beast in Me
6. Alessandro Nivola, Love Story
Just Behind
7. Tom Hollander, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
8. Troy Kotsur, Black Rabbit
9. Nick Offerman, Death by Lightning
SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES/TV MOVIE
As with Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress is full of acclaimed actresses on shows that received mixed reaction. And similar to Supporting Actor, that conversation stars with Beef. Except that there are two strong contenders in this category: Cailee Spaeny and Oscar winner Youn Yuh-jung. I might be overestimating the strength of a season of Beef that seemed to kind of come and go quickly but I do think they will get a pretty good number of nominees. Beef is a brand name and in a field of uncertainties, I think that will matter.
This category actually feels weaker than Supporting Actor perhaps without Half Man having major contenders in the mix so the next show to talk about is probably Love Story. Naomi Watts is a big name, but many felt she was miscast as Jackie Kennedy. Grace Gummer fared a bit better as Caroline Kennedy but isn't as well known. I could see this going any number of ways from both getting in to one getting in to both missing. I just feel so much less sure about the Limited field. A dark horse, but perhaps the most deserving from that show, is Constance Zimmer.
As mentioned above, there seems to be growing support for DTF St. Louis which could help Linda Cardellini even if she was a bit underused. Joy Sunday could be in the mix too if St. Louis really overperforms And Laurie Metcalf is an awards magnet but she seemed like an obvious contender at the Golden Globes and Actor Awards for Monster: The Ed Gein Story and didn't get in so we'll see what happens there. Ditto, but less likely, for Lesley Manville.
As I've mentioned before, Peacock really struggles to get attention in awards circles but Dakota Fanning was nominated in this exact category two years ago for Ripley and could definitely get in for All Her Fault with Sophia Lillis also a contender for that show. Brittany Snow has been around a long time for as young as she is (shout out to American Dreams) but she has never been much of an awards draw. That could change with The Beast in Me as she has had a buzzy year between that and The Hunting Wives. Natalie Morales is also in the mix for Beast but less likely.
As I've mentioned, I am real skeptical of the chances for Death By Lightning but Betty Gilpin perhaps has an easier path to a nomination than some of the men, who were more prominent in the series. I don't think Imperfect Women is going to be much of a player perhaps outside of Kerry Washington but anytime you have Elisabeth Moss in your cast, she's gotta be considered. Kate Mara could also have a chance but I don't see it happening.
If these paragraphs seem underwhelming, they are! So keep an eye out for a surprise. Dark horses include Jennifer Jason Leigh for Something Very Bad is Going to Happen, Marin Ireland for Devil in Disguise: John Wayne Gacy, Sharon Horgan for The Twisted Tale of Amanda Knox and Betty Gilpin again for Hal & Harper. And though I said Half Man wasn't in the mix here, keep an eye on Amy Manson or Neve McIntosh if it really overperforms.
PREDICTED NOMINEES:
1. Cailee Spaeny, Beef
2. Youn Yuh-jung, Beef
3. Linda Cardellini, DTF St. Louis
4. Dakota Fanning, All Her Fault
5. Laurie Metcalf, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
6. Naomi Watts, Love Story
Just Behind
7. Brittany Snow, The Beast in Me
8. Grace Gummer, Love Story
9. Constance Zimmer, Love Story
Next Week: Lead Actor & Actress in a Comedy Series!
