Drama Scorecard: November 30, 2020-January 10, 2021

Welcome back to the Drama Scorecard after the holidays imposed a break for discussion.  While some shows did indeed brave the frosty numbers that are December, several stayed indoors, and there just wasn't much to talk about!  But January is here, and now 32 shows traverse the schedule.  Also, take a peek at the ratings and averages, as dwindling ratings brought the need to let the belt out a decimal.  It reads better having shows carving out their rightful order vs. being typecast into a one-size-fits-all ratings.  These charts will become a bore with several shows tied together.

Entering the likes of the scorecard since Thanksgiving are CBS' Seal Team, MacGyver, Magnum PI and Blue Bloods, ABC's The Rookie and NBC's Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist.  Save for Zoey's, all shows have renewal odds predicted as they have showcased two episodes.  It is likely Zoey's will push into "Leans Renewal" if it maintains steady.  Despite being half of its lead-out's rating, said lead-out, This Is Us, is exhibiting drops later in its run and has been notoriously incompatible with fellow shows and failed to bolster few of its neighbors.  NBC may be looking to the future and sampling Zoey's to rebuild Tuesday evening if This Is Us does indeed conclude in 2022.  It's star is appealing and the show is buzzworthy among the target demographic, so NBC appears to hold some commitment and update its tempo.  And if Tuesday doesn't suit, NBC also holds Friday evening as a space to sample in future schedules.

Though early in the season, CBS' All Rise, ABC's For Life and NBC's The Blacklist have all been downgraded to "On the Bubble."  All Rise holds a solid lead-in with Bob Hearts Abishola, but does not hold the starpower of lead-out Bull.  CBS could figuratively make room on Thursdays or bounce the NCIS spawn back or up an hour on Sundays.  All Rise will be an "as needed" for scheduling needs.  Over at ABC, For Life is underperforming, often matching CBS' struggling SWAT and failing to outshine NBC's aging Chicago PD.  Once again, it is stacked against another weakling in The Rookie which holds a marquee star, so where would ABC schedule this show?  Big Sky is still soaring early in its run, so ABC may need to axe For Life for scheduling needs.  And NBC's Blacklist?  Once a prized jewel, the series is deep into its run in its 8th season and NBC's lowest-rated drama.  Where alarm bells sounded was Friday January 8 when the network filled Blacklist's timeslot with back-to-back reruns of sitcom Mr. Mayor and the repeats nearly matched an original outing of Blacklist.

Take a look at the chart and question "how many people fit into these ratings?"  One Nielsen point currently calculates to 1.206M viewers per point.  The ratings the networks desire are the 18-49 demographic, as shown in this chart.  This means a show like Zoey's Extraordinary Playlist calculates to estimates that 627,120 American citizens in the 18-49 demo were estimated to be watching an original outing.  This equates to nearly the entire population of metropolitan areas like Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (approx 631.3K) and Portland, Oregon (approx. 632.3K) watch this show.  

Incidentally, these cities are America's 26th and 27th largest regions in the country, respectively.  1st and 2nd place shows This Is Us (1.272M) and Grey's Anatomy (1.253M) nearly match the metropolitan population of Phoenix, Arizona (1.563M), America's 6th largest region.  And FOX's misfired Filthy Rich (0.320) nearly matches America's 50th largest metropolitan area, Arlington, Texas (388K).  Viewers may find a fun game figuring out how their town stacks against the ratings.  They merely have to take the figure 1,206,000 and divide by the show's rating in the table.

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