Format for predictions:
Show title (average 18-49 rating, season low-high)
Certain to be Canceled
Conviction* (0.6, 0.4-0.9)
Notorious** (0.9, 0.5-1.1)
Likely to be Canceled
Dr. Ken (0.9, 0.8-1.1)
Secrets & Lies (0.8, 0.6-1.0)
Quantico (0.7, 0.6-1.0)
Toss-Up
Agents of SHIELD (0.8, 0.6-1.1)
Once Upon a Time (1.1, 0.9-1.3)
The Real O'Neals (0.9, 0.8-1.2)
Likely to be Renewed
Last Man Standing (1.2, 1.1-1.5)
Modern Family (2.2, 2.0-2.6)
Certain to be Renewed
American Housewife (1.5, 1.4-1.9)
Black-ish (1.6, 1.2-2.0)
Designated Survivor (1.4, 1.1-2.2)
Fresh Off the Boat (1.2, 1.0-1.6)
The Goldbergs (1.8, 1.5-2.0)
Speechless (1.7, 1.3-2.0)
Fate Determined
Grey's Anatomy (RENEWED)
How to Get Away with Murder (RENEWED)
The Middle (RENEWED)
Scandal (RENEWED)
American Housewife: Like Speechless, American Housewife has done a good job of keeping most of its lead-in. Speechless may have higher numbers, but American Housewife doesn't have the strong lead-out that Speechless has, and it is produced by ABC, therefore giving it an advantage were there ever a situation where one must be chosen over the other. But this is not that situation, and both are certain to be renewed.
The Real O'Neals: It was just one data point, but when this week The Real O'Neals had 91% retention from Fresh Off the Boat, the best it has had all season, it got me thinking. So far, I have been saying that it is Agents of SHIELD versus Once Upon a Time versus Time After Time for a renewal, to avoid premiering too many shows in the fall (7 instead of 8, with a comedy expansion). However, wouldn't a Real O'Neals renewal do the same? Plus, it's a higher rated show than SHIELD or Once. In addition, that would keep Speechless on Wednesdays in the case of comedy expansion on Sundays, where it would likely be paired up with Fresh Off the Boat to avoid placing a new show there. Speechless may not be an ABC produced show, but surely they still care for it. The situation with The Real O'Neals is actually quite similar to the situation of last season. Dungey seemed to find it necessary to renew the show when expanding comedy. Could the same happen this year? Absolutely. Will it? Who knows. Over the next couple of weeks, I will have more to say in this competition.
What did you think of my predictions? Leave your thoughts in the comments!