Below are the predictions for Week 25 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. The following changes have been made since Week 24:
Renew/Cancel Prediction Category Changes-Tracker has been upgraded from Likely Renew to Renewed
-The Neighborhood has been upgraded from Likely Renew to Certain Renew
-The Neighborhood has been upgraded from Likely Renew to Certain Renew
Renew/Cancel Power Ranking Changes
-Tracker increases 4 spots from #5 to #1
-The Neighborhood increases 4 spots from #8 to #4
-Fire Country and Ghosts both fall one spot due to Tracker’s renewal
-NCIS, NCIS: Hawai’i, CSI: Vegas, and So Help Me Todd all fall two spots due to Tracker’s renewal and The Neighborhood’s upgrade
Scripted Predictions
UPDATE: Since publication, Fire Country and Ghosts have both been renewed.
Unscripted Predictions
The Neighborhood
The Neighborhood didn’t have to air this week to be upgraded to Certain Renew. This isn’t even because of Bob Hearts Abishola’s performance; the latter actually performed the same at 8 pm as the week-ago airing of The Neighborhood. To me, this was always a matter of scheduling. In spring 2022, I mistakenly predicted the Chuck Lorre-produced United States of Al would scrape by for a third season, albeit as the least-confident renewal prediction. The prediction was made under the assumption CBS would stick with three hours of comedy, including their two-hour Thursday sitcom block. With Young Sheldon and Bob Hearts Abishola both ending this year, there was a chance of CBS reducing sitcoms to just one hour. That could be done by also canceling The Neighborhood and simply pairing up the certain-to-be-renewed Ghosts with the upcoming Poppa’s House. It would be an incompatible hour and arguably ill-advised, but The Neighborhood is in its sixth season and can’t be getting any cheaper.
Now, with the Young Sheldon spin-off picked up, we’re getting a better idea of what CBS’s 2024-25 schedule might look like. The Neighborhood and Poppa’s House seem destined to be paired up on Mondays, with the Georgie-based Young Sheldon spinoff sliding into the time slot the Big Bang Theory universe has occupied since the 2010-11 TV season. The Neighborhood may very well not last past Season 7, especially given contracts would have to be renegotiated and it’s toward the bottom of the pack when factoring in multi-platform ratings. Being fully owned and in syndication also helps its chances. Combine all this with the fact that CBS was able to give Bob Hearts Abishola a final season announcement, a lower-rated show which they do not own and has less episodes, and there’s no longer any doubt that The Neighborhood will return for Season 7.
NCIS
Like The Neighborhood, NCIS is fully owned and in syndication. Unlike The Neighborhood, NCIS is also an extremely strong player in multi-platform; plus, it’s spawned an international franchise that’s continuing to grow to this day. It’s hard to pinpoint if there’s an endgame for the original series, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely that will be this season. As mentioned in Week 24, under the slight chance they announce a final season around March Madness and give it a strong promotional push, it stays in the Likely Renew category. Falling two spots in the Renew/Cancel Power Rankings is simply by default from Tracker’s renewal and The Neighborhood’s upgrade. NCIS is really the only remaining show that could be confidently upgraded to Certain Renew, and is very close to getting that upgrade.
Tracker’s Renewal & The NBCUniversal Negotiations
Going into negotiations for renewals for the FBI franchise and The Equalizer, NBCUniversal has a big problem on their hands. Tracker, which is owned entirely by Disney via 20th Television, has deservedly secured an early renewal. If it stays put in the Sundays at 9 pm time slot in the fall, that takes away the time slot originally intended for The Equalizer this past fall — and possibly next fall as well had Tracker failed. Additionally, Tracker’s success is helping lead-out CSI: Vegas not look as beyond awful as you’d expect, and Elsbeth’s premiere did as good as it realistically could have. NCIS: Hawai’i is gaining strength right as Paramount makes an effort to expand the franchise, and the fully-owned, fully-loved So Help Me Todd doesn’t look much worse than it did last season when it got renewed. NBCUniversal arguably needed Tracker to fail to have more leverage going into negotiations. As things stand right now, it’s tough to see how CBS finds room to bring back all four of their series. The FBI night looks particularly vulnerable. With Tracker renewed and The Neighborhood bumped up to Certain Renew, replacing one of the FBI spinoffs with NCIS: Origins on Tuesday could be a good financial decision.