Below are tables of predictions for Week 24 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. The following changes has been made from Week 23:
Scripted Category Update-Tracker has been upgraded from Leans Renew to Likely Renew
Scripted Renew/Cancel Power Ranking Update
-Tracker moves up five spots from #10 to #5. In turn, CSI: Vegas (#6), So Help Me Todd (#7), The Neighborhood (#8), FBI (#9), and Elsbeth (#10) all move down one spot by default.
Scripted Predictions
Tracker was CBS’s highest-rated drama this week, even growing from its time slot premiere. Its time slot premiere was also CBS’s most-viewed series in Multiplatform+7, not even counting the rerun. It obviously deserved an upgrade from its Leans Renew prediction, especially one that was at the bottom end of the category. I’ll admit, I had low expectations for Tracker and was prepared to possibly predict Cancel depending on how low it went. Just look at World’s Best; premiered after the Super Bowl on CBS, never got a second season.
Tracker clearly deserves a higher Renew/Cancel Power Ranking than lead-out CSI: Vegas, which remains CBS’s lowest-rated scripted series. It’s also above So Help Me Todd, in the case CBS has an epiphany about its ratings. All three are ranked above the aging The Neighborhood, a decision which could come down to schedule space.
However, it’s too early to assume Tracker is safer than NCIS, a show that will be bumped up to Certain Renew if it’s not announced as a final season within the next few weeks. As you can see, that is not something I am predicting will happen. NCIS: Hawai’i also did too good this week (without any scripted competition, that is) for me to warrant ranking the unowned Tracker ahead of it just yet. If Tracker holds well and NCIS: Hawai’i returns to its usual self, that may change soon. After all, the former is seemingly doing much better than the latter in multi-platform ratings.
Elsbeth
It’s tough to get a good read on Elsbeth’s series premiere. On one hand, it had excellent retention from So Help Me Todd in the Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day demo, and even grew from it in total viewers. On the other, it just barely edged out CSI: Vegas and was the second-lowest-rated scripted series on CBS this week. As a spinoff of The Good Wife and The Good Fight, it’s unclear if Elsbeth would even have done any better if it and CSI: Vegas had switched time slots. It’s very much possible Elsbeth has a low ratings ceiling, and sticking it behind So Help Me Todd is just a way to disguise that.
CBS’s scheduling of Elsbeth is nothing short of terrible. It’s going on a lengthy hiatus after its Leap Day premiere, and unlike Matlock and Poppa’s House, CBS did not delay it to the fall to give it a better launchpad. It did just enough to remain in the Leans Renew category, but right now it’s one of the least safe shows on the network. A move to Paramount+ for any future seasons might not be out of the question.
Survivor
Survivor’s two-hour premiere managed a 0.83 Adults 18-49 Live + Same Day rating. Based on the Popular Shows list, it’s also one of the most popular shows on Paramount+. It’s been nearly 24 years since the first season of Survivor premiered in May 2000, and here we are with the Season 46 premiere far out-rating everything else on CBS’s schedule. The Amazing Race will soon be its lead-out, but is that really the best idea? The latter keeps chugging along after escaping cancelation quite a few times in recent years, but its retention from Survivor is far from impressive. Sure, CBS is in a much better standing with their scripted lineup than their broadcast network counterparts. However, while they could be using Survivor to build up their unscripted division, they are choosing to use it on The Amazing Race instead. This is not a suggestion to cancel The Amazing Race; rather, perhaps they should use it in between Survivor cycles, in the winter and the summer. CBS needs new reality staples, and they’re not going to find those with their current schedule.