This week on the ABC Renew/Cancel, we have a reversal of fortune for the network's Tuesday dramas. Keep reading for my updated thoughts on The Rookie and Will Trent!
Certain Cancellation:
N/A
Likely Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Cancellation:
N/A
Leans Renewal:
The Conners (0.38, 0.36-0.41)
Not Dead Yet (0.27, 0.24-0.32)
Already Canceled/Final Season:
The Good Doctor (0.22, 0.18-0.26)
Station 19
Already Renewed:
Abbott Elementary (0.59, 0.33-1.43)
Coming Soon:
9-1-1
Grey's Anatomy
The Rookie: While The Rookie premiered down considerably from last season, it still managed to grow a half tenth from Will Trent on premiere night, with a 0.38 after Will's 0.33. Since the premiere, that... has not been the case. The show slipped for its 100th episode in week two, even as Will Trent jumped, and then dropped further in week three, hitting its lowest rating since November 2022, when it aired Sunday at 10 PM. With that, it's gone from looking like the highlight of the lineup to yet another average performer on ABC, and an aged one at that. I'm still confident it will be renewed, as it's still performing on the level it was early last season, but it's not looking like a highlight of ABC's scripted crop anymore. With it no longer looking that strong in the L+SD ratings, it's destined to end in the near future, especially since ABC only co-produces it with Lionsgate rather than fully producing it, like they do with 9-1-1, Will Trent, and Grey's Anatomy. I believe its strong delayed ratings performance - a metric in which it only trails Abbott Elementary in the demo - will grant it a seventh season, but I can't see it going beyond that. Station 19 and The Good Doctor were both canceled at that point, and The Rookie doesn't have that much more going for it than either of those shows did. The ratings decline gives me a bit more doubt about its renewal this season than I previously had, but it's still a LIKELY RENEWAL.
Will Trent: While The Rookie is looking worse since its premiere, Will Trent is certainly looking better. I remain skeptical that then show benefited as much from that move to 8 PM as ABC was hoping for, but nonetheless, it's impressive that the show has risen from its mediocre premiere ratings, rather than dropping even further. It'll now take a few weeks off, which will break the momentum, and it'll have to return in a world in which Daylight Saving Time has already kicked in, which is known for hurting shows' ratings. I'm expecting it to decline after that break, but most shows will decline right along with it, so that's not a huge issue. Its ratings are basically in line with the current league average at this point, and it does reasonably well in Multiplatform viewing, so it's hard to imagine ABC canceling the show, especially since they've already canceled two of their other dramas this season. I'm not entirely sure what ABC is going to do with this Tuesday drama lineup, as The Rookie is clearly on its way out soon and The Good Doctor is already canceled, but I'm pretty sure that Will Trent will be a part of whatever they decide to do with Tuesday nights next season. It's not a lock yet, just because it's a bit too early into the season and it could conceivably crater after the break, but it definitely looks good enough to justify an upgrade to a LIKELY RENEWAL.
What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments below!
