NBC Renew/Cancel Week 11: A Criminal Ratings Drop for Law & Order: Organized Crime + NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness Begins

This week on the NBC Renew/Cancel, an early mass renewal and a recent ratings drop leaves one show looking more vulnerable than ever!

Certain Cancellation:

Likely Cancellation:
Quantum Leap (0.25, 0.18-0.32)

Leans Cancellation:

Leans Renewal:
Extended Family (0.29, 0.22-0.71)
Law & Order: Organized Crime (0.38, 0.27-0.46)

Likely Renewal:
Night Court (0.33, 0.28-0.46)

Certain Renewal:
Saturday Night Live (0.72, 0.60-0.96)

Already Canceled/Final Season:
La Brea (0.19, 0.17-0.21)
Magnum PI (0.26, 0.21-0.32)

Already Renewed:
Chicago Fire (0.54, 0.47-0.63)
Chicago Med (0.53, 0.47-0.62)
Chicago PD (0.51, 0.46-0.57)
Found (0.31, 0.25-0.40)
The Irrational (0.27, 0.19-0.34)
Law & Order (0.42, 0.37-0.48)
Law & Order: SVU (0.53, 0.45-0.62)

Coming Soon: 
Lopez vs Lopez

Law & Order: Organized Crime: Before last week, I was intending to give a much different writeup to Organized Crime, due to its impressive stability over the first six weeks of the season, even as its lead-in fluctuates to a more notable amount. However, last week's episode saw a surprising drop of more than a tenth, hitting a series low of 0.27. Yes, SVU did hit a (season) low of its own, but it was only down 0.03 vs OC's 0.12 drop. That drop is concerning, and its retention of SVU wa even more so - just 60% for a direct spinoff starring one of the most iconic SVU characters. It is impossible to engineer a more compatible lead-in for the show than SVU, and yet, OC is still underperforming. Even looking at the season as a whole, it's only averaging 72% of what SVU is averaging. Even still, that 0.39 average seemed like it would be acceptable for a 10 PM slot - after all, fellow 10 PM show The Irrational was renewed after averaging a 0.27 in the demo and going as low as 0.19, and Found is also doing worse. However, something clearly is amiss with this show - last May, they left it off the fall schedule (the strike, of course, eventually meant nearly every scripted show was ultimately left off the schedule), and they only ordered thirteen episodes of the show. Now, in an even more damning instance, EVERY Dick Wolf show but Organized Crime was renewed earlier today. It's hard for NBC to make it any clearer that this is the absolute lowest priority of any of Wolf's shows. It's been a bit of a disaster behind-the-scenes, cycling through seven showrunners in just seven seasons. I thought that the latest showrunner change may have been the reason for the initial short order this season, but now it seems pretty clear that NBC doesn't care all that much for it. I'm not convinced that it will be canceled, but I don't see it as anywhere near a lock, and NBC will spend the next few months considering whether they actually have a slot for it on their schedule. I think this could go either way, despite the relatively solid ratings it's gotten for much of this season, and it continues to only LEAN RENEWAL. 

Chicago Fire, Chicago Med, Chicago PD, Law & Order and Law & Order: SVU: As stated above, these five shows were all renewed by NBC earlier today. While I thought we had an outside chance of Chicago Med or Law & Order being the victims of a shocking cancellation, all five were clearly pretty safe and none of these pickups are surprising.

NBC Renew/Cancel March Madness begins!

Beginning this week and continuing for the next three weeks, we'll be running an NCAA-style "March Madness" bracket tournament among NBC shows, featuring their fifteen scripted shows facing off in matchups in the hopes of being named readers' favorite NBC show. This week will feature seven matches, with seeds 2 through fifteen fighting to make it to the Elite Eight. As NBC's highest-rated show, number 1 seed Saturday Night Live gets a bye this week, due to an uneven number of shows on NBC. You can vote in all seven matches below:

What do you think of my predictions? What are your predictions? Let me know in the comments!

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