Below are the predictions for Week 27 of CBS Renew/Cancel, followed by an analysis. At the end is Round 2 of CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness. In this edition, NCIS has been upgraded from Likely Renew to Certain Renew. Its Renew/Cancel Power Ranking increases from #5 to #4, bumping down The Neighborhood one ranking to #5.
Scripted Predictions
Unscripted Predictions
Unscripted Predictions
Dick Wolf’s NBC Mass Renewal
NBC recently announced the renewal of five of their six Dick Wolf series: all three Chicago series (Fire, PD, and Med) alongside Law & Order and Law & Order: SVU. Notably missing was Law & Order: Organized Crime, the lowest-rated of the six series which has also been plagued with behind-the-scenes issues. While Organized Crime could still ultimately get renewed, it begs the question of if NBC is keeping their options open for the Thursdays at 10 pm time slot next season. It’s not unfathomable that NBC would cancel a Dick Wolf series; they just canceled the unscripted LA Fire and Rescue, which he executive produced. None of this may seem relevant to CBS at first glance. However, the fact NBC did not renew Law & Order: Organized Crime with the other Dick Wolf series indicates it may be fighting for a time slot with a fellow Dick Wolf franchise spinoff: an FBI series.
As discussed before, FBI: International and FBI: Most Wanted not only are primarily produced by NBCUniversal, but past seasons stream on Peacock, not Paramount+. Plus, as Ryan Murphy’s 9-1-1’s demonstrates, a franchise can be spread out across two different networks. With Tracker renewed and fully owned franchise spinoffs like CSI: Vegas and NCIS: Hawai’i looking healthy enough for renewals of their own, the FBI franchise remains vulnerable on CBS. I wouldn’t be surprised if NBC sees a potential opportunity to pick up one from CBS should it be canceled, no longer having to worry about Law & Order: Organized Crime and the baggage that comes with it. FBI itself would be NBC’s ideal get, but they’d likely welcome a spinoff to their schedule given the ownership, solid enough ratings, and streaming rights factors.
S.W.A.T.
Speaking of someone picking up a show that was previously canceled…can S.W.A.T. actually make it to Season 8 after all? It made it to Season 7 by the skin of its teeth, with star Shemar Moore and studio Sony Television fighting off the initial cancelation. S.W.A.T.’s been bounced around CBS’s schedule a lot but found a strong following in the Fridays at 8 pm time slot. CBS’s cancelation reversal and subsequent renewal for a 13-episode Season 7, an episode order that was announced before the dual strikes, was presumed by many to be the absolute end of S.W.A.T. However, Netflix soon after picked up the streaming rights to past seasons, and over the summer S.W.A.T. both hit #1 on Netflix’s streaming chart and cracked the Nielsen streaming chart. The fight for S.W.A.T. Season 8 is not over for star Shemar Moore and fans of the series.
One glimmer of home for S.W.A.T. is that Sony has a very good track record at keeping their shows on the air. Take a look at Unforgettable, a police procedural that aired on CBS in the 2011-12 TV season before getting canceled. Unforgettable went on to get uncanceled and ran for two additional seasons in the summer, before CBS canceled it again after a total of three seasons. Then, A&E picked it up for a fourth overall season, before handing it its third cancelation. Unlike S.W.A.T., Unforgettable was never really a hit, yet survived two cancelations to ultimately last four seasons.
So, could S.W.A.T. actually make it out of this season alive? If it does, it would probably be as a Netflix original. Sony does have other shows airing as Netflix originals, and past episodes of S.W.A.T. do well on the platform, making Netflix the most likely home for any potential future seasons of S.W.A.T.
The NCIS Franchise
Australian NCIS spinoff NCIS: Sydney has been renewed for a second season, which will air on both Paramount+ in Australia and CBS in the United States. It’s unclear when NCIS: Sydney Season 2 will air, but it’s unlikely to be for more than 8-13 episodes. This does not negatively affect predictions for NCIS or NCIS: Hawai’i. In fact, I’m following through on my promise to upgrade NCIS to Certain Renew if it hasn’t been announced as a final season in time for the NCAA tournament. NCIS: Sydney could become one of those now-rare summer scripted shows, or could share a time slot with another series that does not get a full season.
CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness Round 2
With over 120K votes cast, the CBS Renew/Cancel March Madness field narrows from 17 shows down to 8. A Shemar Moore-backed campaign allowed S.W.A.T. to win its play-in game against Bob Hearts Abishola with roughly 20K votes (98% of the vote). It also beat the reigning champion Fire Country with around 16.9K votes (92% of the vote), which itself would have advanced with over 8.6K votes (86%) had its opponent been Bob Hearts Abishola. FBI (84% of the vote), CSI: Vegas (84%), and FBI: International (69%) also easily find themselves in this round. NCIS (55%) had a closer yet still comfortable wins, while Tracker (53%), Young Sheldon (52%), and The Equalizer (51%) had wins that came down to the wire.
Vote below for the shows you would most like to see advance to the next round! You can also vote in ABC Renew/Cancel March Madness here, FOX here, and NBC here.