Below are predictions for scripted Apple TV+ original series with outstanding fates, followed by an analysis. Factors used to make these predictions include each show’s prominence on Apple TV+’s home page, otherwise known as the ‘Originals’ page, as well as its Top 25 chart rank, if applicable. This prediction method has been largely successful over the past 15 months for Paramount+ and Peacock. I’ve been quietly testing it on Apple TV+ in recent weeks, and so far it’s been accurate. Let me know what you think by leaving a comment and voting in the poll!
The plurality of shows are currently predicted as Likely Renew. Two of these series, Monarch: Legacy of Monsters and For All Mankind, most recently aired in 2023 but have not received word on any additional seasons. But remain popular for Apple TV+, and the former’s six appearances on the home page is an encouraging sign. While For All Mankind appears only three times, the creators have a seven season plan in place and it ranks highly on the TV Shows chart. Given Apple doesn’t have the same budget tightening issues of some other streamers, a fifth season renewal seems likely to happen.
The other two series predicted in the Likely Renew category are newer series that are currently airing: Constellation and The Completely Made-Up Adventures of Dick Turpin. If their presence on the home page and on the chart diminishes over time, and their fates remain in limbo, downgrades will probably be in order. For now, there’s no betting against shows that both rank within the top 10 and have four and six home page appearances, respectively.
Leans Cancel
A steep step down from the five shows currently predicted as Likely Renew, Strange Planet and Still Up are predicted as Leans Cancel. Neither crack the TV Shows Top 25 chart, compared to the Top 10 positions of every show in Likely Renew. Both notch two home page appearances, less than every show predicted to be renewed.
Perhaps as importantly, it’s been a long time since either Strange Planet or Still Up aired. Comedy Still Up’s eight-episode run lasted from September 22, 2023 through October 27, 2023, while adult cartoon Strange Planet premiered on August 9, 2023 and wrapped its ten-episode season on September 27, 2023. Given the nature of animation, it would be a long time before a second season of Strange Planet could even make the air. That’s not necessarily a dealbreaker for a streamer like Apple TV+, but it’s certainly not a factor going in the show’s favor. Neither appear to be priorities for Apple TV+, which does not bode particularly well for their future.
Certain Cancel
I don’t often predict shows as Certain Cancel, but the writing seems to be on the wall for The Changeling, Jane, and Lovely Little Farm. They all make one low-profile appearance on the home page. The Changeling can be found deep in the ‘All Drama Series’ section, while Jane and Lovely Little Farm can be found deep in the ‘All Kids & Family’ section. Combine that with the fact it’s been several months since any of them aired, and renewal chances for all three appear far from promising.